Modi's decision to congratulate Sushila Karki in a public rally was not a slip of protocol but a deliberate assertion of India's role as the first responder to Nepal's political shifts
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose a public rally – together with the usual diplomatic cable – to congratulate Nepal's new interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki, it transcended routine diplomacy and gesture. It was a calculated act of public diplomacy, directed as much at the domestic audience in India as at the political realities unfolding in Nepal. In South Asia, where optics often rival policy, Modi's move reflected a broader truth: symbolism is strategy.
Traditionally, heads of government exchange greetings through formal channels – letters, calls, or diplomatic envoys – emphasising sovereign equality and insulating diplomacy from domestic politics. These gestures uphold mutual respect and sovereign equality, steering clear of public spectacle. But Modi, known for theatrical diplomacy – from diaspora events at Madison Square Garden to dramatic summits in Gujarat – turned what could've been a routine note into a rallying cry. Congratulating Karki publicly wasn't just for her. It was a message to two audiences: the Indian electorate and Nepal's political elite. Modi used the moment to reaffirm India's regional influence and project himself as a hands-on regional spearhead.
The open gesture carries implicit expectations with two intended audiences. Every political transition in Nepal resonates India anticipated stability, cooperation, and alignment on issues from trade and water to security and connectivity. Domestically, Modi reinforces image as a regional statesman, weaving foreign policy into electoral narratives.
For Nepal, the message "she will clear the way for peace, stability, and prosperity"... "Nepal has been a friend, a very close friend. We are united by bonds of history and faith. We have been progressing together" doubled as an endorsement for stability hardened with expectations. The subtext implicitly suggests: New Delhi watches closely, anticipates cooperation on shared priorities – from cross-border trade to water sharing, from security coordination to infrastructure connectivity, and expects reciprocity in policy alignment. It was both diplomacy and a pressure optics of India's regional leadership role.
This practice is not without precedent. Indira Gandhi, during the turbulent 1970s, frequently used public addresses to frame Nepal's politics in terms of India's interests. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, though more restrained, leveraged public platforms to remind neighbours of India's preference for democracy and stability. Modi, however, has elevated this practice into a signature style of regional diplomacy –where gestures are magnified through spectacle.
Nepal's political history symbolises with moments when Indian gestures – however well-intentioned – were interpreted as heavy-handed. From the 1989 trade blockade under Rajiv Gandhi to the 2015 unofficial blockade perceived as New Delhi's response to Nepal's new constitution have left deep scars, Kathmandu has often bristled at signs of Indian overreach.
In this context, Modi's rally congratulation must be read carefully. While some in Nepal may welcome it as a sign of goodwill and solidarity, others will inevitably question whether India is once again attempting to insert into Nepal's sovereign political process. For Karki herself, the test will be a delicate balance- embracing India's goodwill without appearing beholden. For Nepal, this is a recurring dilemma: how to benefit from proximity without surrendering autonomy.
Comparisons with the past are illuminating. During the Cold War, Nepal's monarchs skillfully leveraged China and the Soviet Union to balance Indian influence, often resisting Delhi's overtures. In the democratic era post-1990, political leaders have oscillated between seeking Indian support and asserting independence.
Modi's style adds a new dimension: he personalises India's foreign policy and merges it with mass politics. By turning foreign policy messages into rally soundbites, he ensures that India's diplomacy is not confined to chancelleries but consumes public space. In doing so, he raises the stakes for leaders like Karki, who must navigate not only state-to-state relations but also public expectations shaped by Modi's rhetoric.
Timing matters. Modi's public message coincided with Nepal's fragile coalition politics, and India's wariness of instability, where Karki's elevation signalled yet another phase in Kathmandu's unstable parliamentary experiment spilling across the open border.
India is facing its own regional competition with China, which has deepened its engagement in Nepal through infrastructure, connectivity, and security partnerships. By congratulating Karki so visibly early in her tenure, Modi is seeking to pre-empt narratives of the magnitude of Nepal's stability for Nepal and India's growth.
In South Asia's fractious politics, the personalisation of diplomacy magnifies both gains and missteps. Yet the strategy carries risks. What appears as benevolent public diplomacy from Delhi can cast in Kathmandu sharpening nationalist pushback. Moreover, the personalisation of diplomacy carries vulnerabilities. If Karki's tenure falters, Modi's very public endorsement could appear hollow and a miscalculation.
Diplomacy in South Asia has never been a quiet affair. Borders here are porous, histories intertwined, and politics deeply interdependent. In such an environment, symbolism becomes strategy. Modi's decision to congratulate Sushila Karki in a public rally was not a slip of protocol but a deliberate assertion of India's role as the first responder to Nepal's political shifts.
As Sushila Karki begins her tenure, the rally words from Delhi will echo in Kathmandu's corridors of power. Whether remembered as solidarity or as subtle pressure will depend on how deftly both governments navigate the fragile balance between proximity, sovereignty, and shared destiny.
Basnyat, a Major General (Retd) of the Nepali Army, is a strategic analyst and is associated with Rangsit University, Thailand
