While Iranians have legitimate worries that their country may suffer a military attack by the US or become a victim of more sanctions for its nuclear policies, analysts say that the real dangers in 2008 are internally generated ones. The economy has nosedived and civil freedoms have been curtailed as never before, for the new generation of Iranians.

“Since the release of the US intelligence bodies’ report (the National Intelligence Estimate), that said Iran was no longer pursuing a nuclear weapons programme, fear of a US attack has subsided considerably among ordinary people. But long-term sanctions can hurt even more deeply than a short-term attack,” said an economic analyst in Tehran.

“So far, by freely spending the oil revenues of around $60 billion annually in the past two years, the government has managed to prevent the impact of the two UN sanctions resolutions, passed in December 2006 and March 2007,

from being clearly felt in the lives of the ordinary Iranians,” he said. “The economy, however, has begun to clearly show signs of failure and what is called the ‘Dutch Disease’. And things are expected to get even worse as inflation hikes, mainly due to the liquidity growth rate,” he added.

According to publicly released figures, the inflation rate stands at 17 per cent, but parliament’s research centre puts it at 23 per cent. The economic growth rate has dropped to five per cent, and during the past nine months liquidity has grown by 40 per cent as reported by Tahmasb Mazaheri, the governor of the Central Bank of Iran. The liquidity injected into the economy, in the past two years, equals all the liquidity created in the past 45 years, Mazaheri said on state TV.

Unemployment rates — steadily declining since 2001 — are once again on the rise and, now close to 12 per cent. “One of the consequences of high unemployment in a country like Iran

is brain-drain. Iran ranks first among the countries inflicted with brain-drain in the world. There are no official figures but together with the general economic situation and the government’s interference in all aspects of individuals’ private lives it has always encouraged young university graduates to leave the country,” the economic analyst said.

The deteriorating human rights situation is no incentive for young people to stay on in the country. In December 2007, for the fourth time since 2003, the UN Security Council passed a resolution against Iran for systematically violating human rights.

“All through 2007 peaceful demonstrations of teachers, workers, women and students were confronted by police violence. Hundreds of participants in demonstrations and activists

were arrested and put in prison,” a political activist in Tehran said.

“I am anxious all the time, worrying about the family’s survival in such hard times,” a teacher and mother of three adolescents said. “My oldest daughter has just started studying in university in a different city. She is involved in student activities. How can I tell her to keep quiet and mind her lessons while her friends are suffering in prison. Every time the telephone rings my heart sinks,” she added. “The two younger ones are normal youth, but we worry every time they go out. But how can I stop them when I realise they are young and need to act like the young,” she said. — IPS