As Iran vies with the US for dominance in the Middle East, the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are left with several anxieties — the consequences of a US/Israeli military attack on Iran; the rising stock of a Shiite country that has long posed a religio-ideological threat; and sectarian strife in Sunni-ruled countries with significant Shiite communities.

Delivering a policy statement in the United Araab Emirates (UAE) — which has a running feud with Iran over the occupation of the Abu Mussa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs islands — US undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns said his country has always had the stability of the “strategic” region in mind, but Iran has been trying to “alter” it by attempting to dominate. “The US will not let this happen. We don’t want Iran to dominate the region. The Gulf isn’t a body of water to be controlled by Iran. When challenged, the US will do everything to defend its interests. We will respond — economically, financially, politically, and not necessarily just through military means,” Burns said on January 23. Burns’ visit came amid a flurry of diplomatic activity that included US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ tour of the region and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s efforts to mobilise the six-member GCC bloc comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as Egypt and Jordan to join Washington in confronting Iran.

The Sunni-ruled countries find themselves in a fix with regard to developments in Iran. Looking the other way while Iran develops its nuclear programme would inevitably bolster the Islamic Republic’s military prowess and pose a security threat. On the other hand, demanding an end to nuclear enrichment places them alongside the Untied States and Israel. With Tehran repeatedly suggesting that it would retaliate by targeting American bases in the Gulf, the GCC countries fear the possibility of a destructive war that could bring to the fore sectarian divisions that have lain dormant.

Bahrain has a majority Shiite population, one-third of Kuwaitis are Shiites, and Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich eastern province has a significant percentage of Shiites, who have often complained of discrimination.

Apart from allegations that its role in Iraq is to maintain instability and keep the US on the defensive, Iran has also been accused of aiding Shiite Hezbollah to overthrow the pro-Western Fouad Siniora government. While the United States claims that its Iran-Iraq policies are a reflection of the region’s Sunni governments, many in the region believe that Washington is using the division to its advantage.

“What we are not interested in is another war in the region,” said Mohammed Al-Naqbi of Gulf Negotiations Centre in the UAE. “Iraq is the US’s problem, not the problem of the Arabs. The US destroyed a country that had institutions. It handed that country to Iran. Now it is crying to Europe and the Arabs to help them out of the mess.” Munir Diar, a Yemeni analyst, recommends a regional plan.

“Arabs in this region and Iran must negotiate regional security arrangements far from any American influence or dictates. Iran is a de facto regional power, its role a fait accompli. The Sunni-Shiite split must be done away with,” he wrote in the UAE’s Gulf News on January 18. — IPS