If Iraq were a hospital patient, the Bush administration would be tempted to take it off the critical list and send it home for Christmas. US officials say a wide range of indicators show steady improvement. After years of chaos and the near-death experience of all-out sectarian warfare in 2006, hopes of a remarkable recovery are rising.

Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, carried the political equivalent of flowers when she did the rounds in Kirkuk and Baghdad last week. The Kirkuk leg was to demonstrate that this Kurd-Sunni Arab-Turkman flashpoint is treatable. Her message was aimed at the worried Turks of Ankara, Washington’s friends in the north. Rice’s lunch with President Jalal Talabani in Baghdad’s Red Zone, outside the government’s fortified Green Zone, was an ostentatious celebration of improved security. Not so long ago, she would not have got past the soup course without a suicide bombing or three.

“We’re continuing discussions about how to build on the security and economic progress that is being made here and on the significant developments at the local and provincial level, to make certain that national reconciliation takes place,” Rice cooed.

Statistics famously lie but current figures, spurious or not, are finally favouring Washington and its Iraqi clients. Since the American military surge began, civilian deaths have fallen roughly two-thirds across Iraq. The latest Pentagon assessment recorded 600 killings in November, compared with more than 2,500 in January. At least 3,600 members of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia were killed or captured in the same period. A key factor is said to be the so-called “Sunni awakening”. The Pentagon said the decline in sectarian conflict has been matched by the recruitment of 69,000 mostly Sunni volunteers, hostile to foreign jihadis and determined to reclaim their communities. The Shia Arab, Iranian-backed Mahdi army’s ceasefire has helped cut the killing.

Economic indicators also colour Washington’s rosy picture. Pentagon chief Robert Gates says Iraq’s Saddam era debt has been significantly reduced and the economy is growing by 5% to 6% annually, buoyed by oil receipts. In this developing American narrative, the thousands of returning exiles, and Iraq’s improved relations with its neighbours, tell their own story.

Concerns about a relapse lie behind the US military’s current debate over how quickly post-surge troop reductions can be carried out. Gates is said to want to go down to 100,000, or 10 combat brigades, by the end of 2008. Planners know that if they get the timing wrong, the insurgents will pounce, claim a great victory and try to plunge the country back into mayhem.

But for now, after some very tough years, the official mood in Washington is approaching upbeat. And the US public is catching on. According to the Pew Research Centre, 48% now believe Iraq is going either fairly or very well, compared with 34% in January.

That shift in opinion may or may not accurately reflect realities on the ground. Under any scenario, the “new Iraq” will be a long time a-building. But if optimism continues to grow, it could radically change both Iraq and the way US voters view their presidential candidates. The pro-war Republican John McCain, another political hospital case not so long ago, is positioned to benefit most. — The Guardian