The events within the past three weeks alone show that the elections the government has promised are unlikely to be held in the present situation, except as a farce. At a time when the impression being given by those in power was that the Maoists had become too weak to mount any major assault, the rebels struck Bhojpur, killing nearly two dozen security personnel, then they blockaded 13 districts not without impact, and now, 17 days after Bhojpur, they have attacked Beni Bazar, the headquarters of Myagdi district, in which they have destroyed several government’s office buildings, killing at least two dozen security personnel, wounding many more, and taking away a number of government employees, including the CDO and DSP, as prisoners. These major events, other Maoist activities and the sway they continue to hold over much of the countryside should provide enough indications that the pursuit of a military solution alone is not going to work.

These encounters have produced tragic consequences for the Nepalis. Rival claims apart, whichever side may have gained or lost more is beside the point. Whether they were the security personnel or the Maoists or civilians caught in the cross-fire, they were, above all, Nepali citizens. And the many more left bereaved will have to struggle against economic, psychological and other odds. The Maoist-related death toll alone approaches 10,000. At this rate, which is likely to be a regular cycle, the country is heading for further disasters and ultimate ruin. Neither side seems to be winning the war. This means, from a practical point of view, too, this is a senseless war and there is no better alternative to dialogue, compromises and political settlement.

The State says that mobilising the security forces aims to weaken the Maoists and bring them to the negotiating table. The Maoists, on their part, say that they want a political solution through a new constitutional arrangement approved by the people. This should give common ground on which both sides can build peace. In this, the State has a greater responsibility of taking the initiative. The recent Maoist offensives appear to have been made to demonstrate that the polls cannot take place without their concurrence and, also perhaps, to build pressure for starting a dialogue. There is thus an acute need to adopt confidence-building measures with the objective of holding a broad-based political conference to discuss all major aspects of the crisis. The Nepalis, who have grown more conscious of their rights and their future in the past few years, are unlikely to accept any retrogressive rule or violence. Without doubt, any lasting political settlement will have to be found within a fully democratic framework, inviting international mediation, if necessary.