Near derailment of peace process: State of desperation
Once again, the United CPN-Maoist, the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML have formed a six-member committee to have discussions on reaching consensus to avert the political crisis which has been dogging the nation since long. There is little hope that these parties would decide to deviate from their old strategic stands. With every passing day, all are growing increasingly despondent about the timely adoption of the new constitution and the culmination of the peace process. The recent seventh time rescheduling of writing the constitution has strengthened their despair.
They have valid reasons for their disbelief. First, May 28, 2010, the last date for passing the constitution is approaching fast. Secondly, about 19,000 Maoist cadres are still languishing in 28 cantonments waiting for their adjustment and rehabilitation. Thirdly, the future of about four thousand disqualified combatants is also hanging. Fourthly, the victims of insurgency are yet to be compensated properly. Fifthly, the different commissions to start the healing process like Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Peace and Reconstruction Commission etc. are yet to be formed. Sixthly, many commitments made in the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) have not yet been attended to.
The peace process had many ups and downs in the past. But for the last couple of months, it appears stagnant. Some times it is asked: is this moribund peace process facing terminal crisis? Sometimes a supplementary question is also put: who is to be blamed for the present state of affairs? For a man who is attached to this or that political organization, the answer is very easy. One may blame another. And the blaming game is happening. The Unified CPN-Maoist blames the parties in power whereas the government blames the Maoists for it.
The peace process has really taken a serious turn after Prachanda, the Maoist supreme, resigned from Prime Ministership in May last. This resignation has left serious psychological impact on the minds of the Maoist leaders. Perhaps, they had the strategy to integrate their cadres in the Nepal Army within a limited period by doing away with the then Chief of the Army Staff by passing the constitutional procedure, which was foiled by the presidential order. It seems that they not only lost the power to rule but also the opportunity to implement their hidden agenda whatsoever. To justify their decision, they took up the issue of civilian supremacy and stretched it out of proportion. They are treading a circuitous path by dragging the issue not only to the Legislative Parliament but also to the streets calling bandhs, blockades, black fag demonstrations and boycotting the meetings of political dignitaries. On this issue, the Legislative Parliament is stalled since July 2009. However, it was allowed to function for three days to pass the national budget. They had resorted to declare their ethnic republican states in a phased manner. They are capturing lands of people and paddy crops from the cultivators. They have resorted to capturing of forestlands in Kailali District. These activities being the parts of their political agenda are being pushed forward after they lost their hope of retuning back to power in the near future and getting their combatants integrated in the army as per their plan. Broadly, all these actions are against the CPA and prove that the Maoists are acting desperately.
Similar is the case with the Nepali Congress and its supreme leaders GP Koirala, who is getting desperate too these days. Once, he was the leader of the peace process as all leaders were rallying around him. But now he hardly appears to be effective any more.
The first political mistake he committed was his selection of the electoral process for the CA election. Had there been no direct election for any seat of the CA, the result would definitely not have been so humiliating for the NC as it was. To some, the NC might have lost the election, but it was GP Koirala who lost his last political battle for himself. Secondly, he got the interim constitution amended to make the whole process competitive in place of consensual by making the posts of president, vice president and even prime minister elected by majority votes. Since he was left out of power, he delayed the formation of the Maoist led government for a few months. Luckily, since the Maoist led government resigned a new coalition government led by CPN-UML took over, he made the entry of his daughter as the minister for foreign affairs and then got her designated as deputy prime minister. As his health and old age are
not cooperating with him in managing the day to day affairs of the Party, his powers are getting curtailed gradually.
The CPN-UML is also facing leadership crisis in the party. The PM is unable to exercise his power in view of the strength of his opponents in the party and the Maoists opposing him tooth and nail. So the country as a whole is in the grip of desperation and there is every likelihood of the peace process getting derailed due to any desperate action from various quarters.
Prof. Mishra is former Election Commissioner
