Nepal's political landscape is transforming rapidly. At such a moment, the Nepali Congress (NC)-long considered a guardian of democratic ideals and centrist politics-is confronting an unprecedented convergence of challenges. The rise of alternative political figures like Balen Shah and Kulman Ghising, the growing aggression of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RASWAPA), and the potential consolidation of leftist forces have all exposed serious vulnerabilities within Congress.
It is now time for introspection, strategic restructuring, and most importantly-internal unity among top leaders like Sher Bahadur Deuba, Dr. Shekhar Koirala, and Gagan Thapa. Without this unity, Congress risks being engulfed by populism, polarization, and institutional collapse. The loss of electoral ground, particularly in rural and economically fragile regions, is a real possibility unless the party presents an organized, visionary alternative.
The Rise of Balen and Kulman: A New Political Frontier
The potential formation of a new political party by Balen Shah and Kulman Ghising could significantly disrupt the political aspirations of the people and shift the power dynamics in Nepal. These two figures appeal to urban youth, professionals, and politically disillusioned voters, and pose both an ideological and electoral threat to traditional forces.
Although their administrative achievements and public appeal are undeniable, their lack of a clear nation-building strategy is worrisome. Their expressions tend to be more reactionary and populist, leaning toward disruption rather than long-term policy-making. Nonetheless, they continue to win over a public frustrated by corruption, inertia, and elite-driven politics. In short, each election season appears to offer the public a new excuse to be "deceived one last time."
Communist Consolidation and Strategic Polarization
The potential alliance among UML, Maoist Centre, and other leftist parties could spark renewed polarization, using nationalism, federal grievances, and class-based rhetoric to present themselves as defenders of the marginalized.
If the Nepali Congress fails to provide a credible centrist democratic alternative, this polarization could push the party further to the margins-not just rhetorically but electorally as well.
The Populist Surge of RASWAPA
Without any solid blueprint for nation-building, RASWAPA has still managed to expand its influence by leveraging an anti-establishment image. Its popularity is largely rooted in the crisis of credibility that plagues traditional parties.
Though RASWAPA may not command national leadership, its impact in swing constituencies-especially urban ones-could hurt Congress significantly.
Lessons from India: BJP's Discipline vs. INC's Disarray
India presents a nearby case study. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP has consolidated power through a clear vision, disciplined organizational structure, and a coherent ideological message. Leadership roles are well-defined, and even the second-tier leaders remain loyal to the party's core values.
On the other hand, the Indian National Congress (INC) has struggled for relevance over the past decade. Rahul Gandhi's "Bharat Jodo Yatra" was emotionally powerful but failed to translate into electoral gains. The primary reasons: internal factionalism and lack of strategic coherence.
Lesson for the Nepali Congress: Charisma without cohesion and emotion without planning are formulas for failure.
The Need for Unity: Deuba, Shekhar, and Gagan Must Cooperate
Nepali Congress must avoid repeating the mistakes of the INC. Personal ambitions and intra-party rivalries must be set aside for collective leadership.
Sher Bahadur Deuba, a seasoned leader, is nearing retirement. However, his influence continues through Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba, whose Rana heritage and contributions to public health are significant.
Dr. Shekhar Koirala, heir of the esteemed Koirala dynasty, represents both tradition and reform. His father's six-year imprisonment and mother Nona Aama's pioneering leadership as a woman politician strengthen his legacy. His early arrest and people-centered approach reinforce his credibility as a principled leader.
Gagan Thapa, a product of the 2006/07 republican movement, has become a central figure in youth politics. With strong grassroots and parliamentary credibility, he stands as a vital pillar in Congress' renewal.
Leadership should not be viewed as a zero-sum game. Rather, roles like President, Executive President, and Prime Minister-in-waiting should be distributed strategically to ensure both continuity and innovation.
A Framework for Revival
To respond effectively to the current crisis, Congress must adopt the following:
1. Leadership Restructuring:
• Sher Bahadur Deuba facilitates a smooth leadership transition.
• Dr. Shekhar Koirala becomes party president.
• Gagan Thapa takes on the role of Acting President or General Secretary, focusing on youth mobilization and policy development.
• Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba's potential as Nepal's first female Prime Minister must also be considered.
2. One-Time Unity Pact:
• All three factions agree to suspend internal electoral competition until after the 2084 General Election.
• Age limits and transitional leadership norms are implemented to ensure institutionalized generational change.
3. National Agenda Declaration:
• Congress must unveil a 10-year national plan focusing on federal harmony, education reform, AI/data-driven economy, infrastructure development, and a clarified foreign policy.
• Nepal must shift from outdated non-alignment toward pragmatic partnerships grounded in national interest.
Path to 2084 and Building Future Leadership
The 2084 General Election must be seen as a generational handover, not just a contest. Leaders like Dr. Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Thapa, and Dr. Arzu Rana are all plausible Prime Ministerial candidates for that era. The time to start preparing is now-by crafting unified leadership, clear narratives, and leadership styles that inspire trust across demographics.
It also requires empowering regional leaders, ensuring transparency in candidate selection, and revamping provincial structures through possible constitutional amendments to reduce government size and enhance development focus.
Adapt or Fade Away
History teaches that political parties collapse not only because of electoral defeat but because of their failure to adapt to people's changing aspirations.
The Nepali Congress must now decide whether it wishes to be an institution of reform and national leadership-or merely a relic of the past. The decision rests squarely with its key leaders: Deuba, Koirala, and Thapa.
If they embrace unity with humility, strategy, and vision, Congress can still lead Nepal into a stable and prosperous future. If not, it will become just another cautionary tale in the long history of South Asian democracy.
NC leader Bajgain is a member of parliament
