In Nepal, the population census takes place every 10 years and was supposed to have taken place in June 2021, but due to the COV- ID-19 pandemic, the CBS managed to hold it in November, from11-25. On January 26, 2022, the Central Bureau of Statistics made public its preliminary census results, stating that the total population of Nepal had reached 29.2 million - a figure lower than the projected figure of 30.4 million.
During the last 10 years, the average annual population growth rate was 0.93 per cent – the lowest in 80 years since 1941. The highest average annual growth rate of 2.62 per cent was recorded in 1981. High population growth of 2 per cent per annum or more was seen until 2001, but thereafter it has been growing at less than 2 per cent per annum.
The 2021 preliminary census results show that the population of Nepal is growing at less than one per cent per annum, at 0.93 per cent.
The population growth rate is very uneven between the Mountains/Hills combined (0.25%) and the Tarai (1.56%), which means the population in the Tarai will double in the next 45 years, while it will take 277years for the Mountains/ Hills to achieve the same.
Among the seven provinces, the population size is highest (6.13 million) in Madhes, followed by Bagmati (6.08 million), Lumbini (5.12 million), Province 1 (4.97 million), Sudurpaschim (2.71 million) and Gandaki (2.48 million) while Karnali has the lowest population (1.69 million).
In 2011, Bagmati was the biggest province in terms of population, which has now been taken over by Madhes Province.
Massive internal migration is a salient feature of Nepal's population. Between 1991 and 2011, the Tarai region received 2.2 million net migrants from the hills and mountains.
This has seriously distorted population distribution. In 1971, the hills/mountains had 62 per cent of the total population, which decreased to 50 per cent in 2011 and further to 46 per cent by 2021. Now 77 per cent of the country's landmass, which makes up mountains and hills, is inhabited by only 46 per cent of the total population while 54 per cent of the population is crammed into 23 per cent of its land.
Now 32 of 77 districts have negative population growth.
Population size is a function of fertility, mortality and migration. In Nepal, the total fertility rate (TFR) per woman was 6.4 in 1976, which has now declined to 2 in 2019. This rate is lower than the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 per woman.
Fertility got reduced mainly due to contraceptive practice until 2006 when the contraceptive prevalence rate of modern methods was 44.2 per cent and fertility was 3.1 per woman.
Since 2006, the fertility level has got reduced due to contraceptive use combined with spousal separation due to migration of husbands and rising age at marriage. Of late, abortion could also be contributing to fertility decline. Although fertility has declined drastically at the national level, by provinces it varies greatly. In 2019, theTFR was lowest (1.6) in Bagmati, 2nd lowest in Gandaki (1.8) and 3rd lowest in Lumbini (1.9).
The TFR in 2019 was highest (2.7) in both Madhes and Karnali and second highest (2.4) in Sudurpaschim, while it was 2 in Province 1. TFRs in Karnali, Madhes and Sudurpaschim are still above the replacement level. Over the years, the chances of survival have improved, and as a result life expectancy at birth has increased to 66.7 years in 2011 from 27.8 years in 1952/54, representing a 140 per cent increase in the last 60 years. Life expectancy at birth for 2021 is estimated at 69.6 years (males 67.9 years and females 71.3 years).
In recent years, net out-migration is contributing substantially to low growth of the population. According to the 2011 population census, the absentee population, or net out migrants, numbered 1.9 million, which has increased to 2.2 million in 2021.
Rapid fertility decline and increase in life expectancy have resulted in the proportion of the working-age population rising compared to the dependent population. This bulge (about 17.5 million aged 15-64 in 2021) is a window of opportunity, leading to a Demographic Dividend for Nepal to accelerate economic growth. The demographic dividend has begun in Nepal since 1995, and it is likely to end by 2047. Nepal is currently in the window of opportunity to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend.
The current population age structure is also contributing to an increase in the old age population. In 2011, there were 5.3 million people aged 65+ compared to only 0.35 million in 1971.
Nearly 2.28 million will be 65+ by 2031, and the proportion of the elderly will be 7 per cent.
Given Nepal's current population situation, Nepal should devise a new population strategy to address the population-related problems. The government's obsession with the fertility reduction programme needs a revisit although this programme needs to be strengthened in Karnali and Madhes provinces.
The worry now is how to decelerate the decreasing population and achieve a balanced distribution of the population by geographic region. Another major concern should be making the most of the demographic dividend as this phenomenon is time-bound. The government's priority of infrastructure development is untimely; we have already experienced that these big projects take a long time to materialise, and if this is so, we will lose time in addressing the demographic dividend.
Nepal's economy, which is highly import-dependent, is likely to face doomsday.
Investment in human development should be the priority. Human resource development and job creation plans should go hand in hand. Effective urban planning is another area needing prioritisation.
Simply declaring clusters of settlements as urban areas invite more challenges.
And in view of health, education and livelihood being the fundamental rights of citizens as enshrined in Nepal's new constitution, innovative urban development plans are called for.
" A major concern for the government should be to make the most of the demographic dividend as this phenomenon is time-bound.
The government's priority of physical development is untimely; we have already seen that these big projects take a long time to materialise, and if this is so, we will lose time in addressing the demographic dividend"
A version of this article appears in the print on May 10, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
