In the event of a referendum in the country, the people may opt for the Hindu nation instead of the Hindu Kingdom in view of the Kings' dictatorial tendencies in the past
The observation of Republic Day was something of a stark contrast this year. At one end of the spectrum was the government celebrating with pomp and pleasure at the Army Pavilion in Tundikhel, highlighting its achievements. They contended that supporters of the restoration of the Monarchy were daydreaming, and its revival was like the return of someone dead who had been buried way back in the past.
On the other end were supporters of the Monarchy at Ratna Park, who declared a strike until the return of the former King, Gyanendra, to the throne. They are claiming that the Republic had become an utter failure, and this needed the comeback of the King to fix it. Though this one-day official celebration came immediately to an end, the protest of the royalists continued into the third day in succession. Whilst it led to the firing of water cannons on the second day, some eight protesting leaders, including Kamal Thapa, were arrested on the third day. They were, however, released soon afterwards. A Valley bandh was announced for the fourth day, which was withdrawn soon thereafter.
The Republicans are challenging King Gyanendra to open a party or continue with his supporter, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), to fight the election, win a two- thirds majority and then return as the King. The Monarchists opine that the former King was more equal, reminding one of the pigs of George Orwell's popular novel "Animal Farm" and hence could not take part in political competition like other Nepali mortals.
Not that the Kings have not made a comeback in world history. In our own country, during the Licchavi period, in the early 7th century, King Udaya Dev was swept out of power. Though he could not bounce back, his son Narendra Dev made a return as King. But how was it possible? The Tibetan regime had helped in his revival. And King Narendra Dev paid back for this help by sending troops for the release of Wang Huen Tse, the Chinese ambassador who had been insulted by Arunaswa. But will communist China help the royalists when its political allies, the Communist parties in Nepal, are at daggers drawn with the Royalists?
Will India then jump into the fray in view of being ruled by the Hindu-based saffron party, which has been in power for the last 15 years and is expected to continue in the future as well? One of its stalwarts, the Chief Minister of the adjoining state of Uttar Pradesh, Aditya Nath Yogi, has openly shown his affinity for the restoration of the Hindu kingdom in the country. But the recent visit of former Prime Minister Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai to India and his statement that India favours a democratic Republic in Nepal certainly dampens the chances of the return of the Monarchy.
History has shown that India has to be positive for a regime change in Nepal. Whether it be the restoration of multi-party polity in 1990 or the establishment of the Republic in 2015, India has played a significant role. In 1990, several leaders like Chandra Shekhar, the former prime minister of India, had provided moral support for the lifting of the ban on the political parties by addressing the protesters. In 2005, the 12-point agreement between the parliamentary parties and the Maoists was initiated in India before its signing in the country.
With no interest shown by the two neighbours, is there a chance for the Monarchy to be restored in the country? Yes, there is if the political events go the England way when Charles the Second returned to the throne in 1660 – 12 years after his father King Charles was beheaded in 1648 primarily because of the dissolution of the Parliament umpteen times to the disappointment of the republicans. The Republicans came to power with Oliver Cromwell becoming the all-powerful Lord Protectorate, who was the man behind the beheading. He was rated highly after securing military victories in Scotland and Ireland until he died in 1658. What followed was the succession by his son Richard Cromwell, who proved to be highly unsuccessful.
Richard was dogged by two problems. Firstly, he was questioned for his post as he did not have military experience. Secondly, the country's economy was going from bad to worse. The military did not support Richard after fearing of military cuts, which led to his resignation. In the following election, the royalists outnumbered the republicans. This parliament decided to welcome Charles the Second subject to the condition that he would provide amnesty to the republicans who had supported the execution of King Charles.
But this is unlikely to be the case because the military in Nepal will not take such a radical step, nor will the republican leaders resign as did Richard. But the Monarchists in Nepal can create a wave in their favour, as did the Rastriya Swatantra Party, in their maiden attempt and win a significant number of seats in the parliament. This is very much likely in view of the trajectory of dismal performance of the republicans coupled by the country's sagging economy and mounting corruption heading for a nosedive than attaining the required height.
But the former King may not secure a landslide victory in the 2027 election given his tendency to bring the absolute monarchy back by putting the popularly-elected leaders behind bars. Then there could be a consensus for holding a referendum to choose between a Hindu nation, Hindu Kingdom and secularism. The people may opt for the Hindu nation instead of the Hindu Kingdom in view of the Kings' dictatorial tendencies whether they be the acts of King Mahendra, who declared absolute monarchy by putting an end to the elected government of charismatic Prime Minister B P Koirala or that of King Gyanendra who emulated his father, King Mahendra. The Monarchists thus seem to be engaged in a futile exercise of restoring the monarchy in the country.
