The spontaneous upsurge last week against the decision of the state-owned Nepal Oil Corporation to hike the price of petroleum products should be taken seriously by the SPA government. The incident must also prompt both the government and the political parties to review their performance and analyse the reason behind the violent protests across the country.

SPA government showed its incapacity by deferring polls twice in the past and the announcement of a new date has not been enough to restore confidence among the masses. The government’s unwillingness to address the demands made by indigenous and ethnic communities has further aggravated the situation, which is manifest in the growing turmoil in the Tarai.

The internal strife among the leaders of large parties like the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML has further eroded people’s trust in the political parties and their leaders. The issue of monarchy has divided the Nepali Congress leadership and the vague, negative statements concerning the nature of federal units by some leaders have given rise to more confusion and mistrust. The UML has proposed to align itself with other leftist parties including the Maoists who were severely criticised by an influential leader like KP Oli. This shows divisions within the UML. Those who had looked on UML with hope have now been disillusioned.

The confusion created by statements of the party leaders has not only distanced them from the party rank and file but also encouraged the student leadership to defy their orders. Jana Andolan II will have succeeded only after political dialogue among various ethnic communities, Madhesis and dalits will lead to a consensus on state structure and equal opportunities for all Nepalis. The need for Constituent Assembly was felt for the very purpose of attending to the aspirations of marginalised people across the country.

For this purpose, it is important that there be maximum people’s participation, whereby they get to air their aspirations and suggest ways to meet them. Political discussion at all levels culminating in a widely participated national conference is necessary to achieve consensus on conflicting issues. However, not only have dialogues at all levels among political parties and civil society been ignored, the need for communication between the leaders and the cadres within the same party has also not been felt. The leaders take their cadres for granted. The lack of communication, in turn, led to frustration among the cadres, which have culminated in open revolts.

A new date for Constituent Assembly polls has been announced and SPA leaders have embarked on joint election awareness campaigns in various parts of the country with much fanfare. The meets in Kathmandu and Dhangadi went well but Janakpur proved unfruitful for SPA leaders. Only a day ago, the Tarai Madhes Democratic Party leader had warned that his party would not sit for talks till the government made its stand on his party’s 11-point demand clear.

A day ahead, the Minister for Peace and Reconstruction had said that all demands of the Tarai leaders had been fulfiled. Either he was undermining the influence of the leaders of the newly formed political parties in the Tarai or he himself is a victim of the lack of communication that has bedevilled Nepali political leaders.

The announcement of SPA leaders to hold election on the scheduled date at all costs does not inspire confidence among people. The reason is obvious. The Tarai is in ferment. The Khotang incident in which police posts were attacked and arms and ammunition seized indicates that the ethnic political apparatus is bound to create problems for the government. The incident should be an eye-opener for the government which should treat it as an indication of the suppressed demands.

Under the circumstances, the fate of CA election remains uncertain and even if it is held, its credibility will be questioned as there is no atmosphere for free and fair elections at present. The election has to be fully participatory whether it is held in a single day or in two or three phases. Mobilisation of security apparatus alone cannot guarantee wide participation. Only political motivation can egg them on to vote.

So the entire issue of successful CA polls hovers around settlement of political questions. An agreement between the stakeholders — ethnic groups, Dalits, Madhesis and marginalised communities to restructure the state in order to make it fully inclusive is a must for free and fair CA polls.

Leaders have taken their cadres for granted and cadres have taken the people for granted but recent events across the country have indicated that people have, thanks to the media revolution, started questioning every government move. And they want answers. The government has to take the initiative to craft a proper mechanism to imbue a sense of urgency to address all sensitive issues before the nation.

Upadhyay is ex-foreign minister