Although the post-February 1 era appears to be insensitive to the pressures exerted internally as well as externally, the establishment has now started showing gradual responses to the pressures built from within and by the international community. The pressures are mounted by the 12-point agreement reached between the seven-party alliance and the Maoists on the one hand, and the futility of municipal elections, the Supreme Court’s verdict on unconstitutional use of Article127 and the continuation of the armed conflict, on the other. It seems that the royal message on Democracy Day was a reluctant response given in compliance with the advice rendered to the King by US ambassador, James F Moriarty, through his address to the gathering organised by the Ganesh Man Singh Academy and the American Centre in Kathmandu on February 15.

After cautioning the seven-party alliance against their relations with the Maoists by highlighting that the insurgents would benefit by the support of the parties and “will continue employing murder, extortion, and intimidation as tactics of choice”, the US ambassador advised the King in categorical terms to initiate the dialogue with the parties since in his words “...the palace needs to devise some effective gesture to make absolutely clear its willingness to enter formal and concrete talks with the major political parties”. He also warned the King that Nepal would suffer more misery and bloodshed if the King and his government opted for more repression. While reiterating his previous stand of reconciliation between the King and the parties, Moriarty found fault with the King for not reaching out to the parties for restoring democracy in the country.

The King’s Democracy Day message on February 18 emits some signals to different quarters by inviting “willing” or “interested” parties for “listening to each other, putting across our views, doing away with discord and enhancing mutual understanding; and consolidating peace and democracy” to fully activate the installed democratic process in the greater interest of the nation and also to those who have been misguided to shun violence and destruction for entering the mainstream multiparty democracy. While highlighting the 20 per cent voting in the recent municipal elections as people’s faith reflected in the power of the ballot, the King wishes that democracy could be re-energised with the action of all the representative bodies through electoral process.

Against the backdrop of Moriarty’s suggestions, the royal message seems to have addressed many audiences at a time. First, it appears to address Moriarty’s advice, as the message calling for a dialogue with all the parties, fell in line with the ambassador’s advice. But the King has not taken the advice seriously as his call is not specific to the seven-party alliance and the Maoists, who are the two major forces of the tripartite conflict opposing the autocratic and feudal establishment. The King has ignored, for the time being, the advice since he may be sure of the US support of rescuing him ultimately from this imbroglio, as the US is leading the fight against international terrorism. Secondly, it has indirectly repudiated the view of the international community with regard to the municipal elections as being hollow and farce. The King sticks to his guns when he states that the polls were meaningful and he will hold parliamentary elections also at gunpoint showing least respect and concern for the views of the international community. Thirdly, the message is not directly addressed to the seven-party alliance since the present dispensation does not take their agitation seriously. However, if they are willing or interested in extending support to the royal road map, they can seek an audience with the King. Fourthly, the message has taken the existence of the Maoists and their armed struggle lightly as they have been considered misguided people. Lastly, it has appreciated the royalists for their support extended to the royal political stand at this juncture.

The ambassador, not being satisfied with the royal message, has again advised the King through a TV talk programme to hold dialogue with the major parties. This advice appears to be somewhat fruitful, as the King has started consultations with some people and fringe party leaders supporting his stand, including the Speaker. Now, since the US president has himself advised the King to restore democratic institutions, in a joint press conference with the Indian PM in New Delhi on March 2, it is assumed that the King will break the ice by calling for the dialogue with the parties in the near future. But it is also presumed that any dialogue will have to be preceded by some concrete steps meeting some of the parties’ demands by the King. This will be the only reasonable course to ease the political impasse. If the regime decides to continue in office and prolong political uncertainty, it would definitely be disastrous for all of us.

Prof. Mishra is ex-election commissioner