The meeting between Prime Minister G P Koirala and Maoist superemo Prachanda on May 22 was expected to end the prevailing political impasse. Prior to that on May 21, the cabinet could sit only for ten minutes to clear the budget for the maintenance and management of PLA cantonments. Significantly, on May 25, the cabinet, after a long silence, formed a judicial commission to investigate the Tarai unrest and the March 21 Gaur massacre.

The meet between the PM and the Maoist supremo reportedly lasted for about two hours in which the Maoist leader requested for early release of the budget agreed upon and passed by the cabinet earlier, according to which each PLA fighter living in the cantonments would get Rs 3,000 per month. The move is believed to have facilitated the process of second phase of verification of the PLA by the UNMIN. The PM is understood to have expressed his grave concern about YCL activities, its failure to execute earlier agreements, and especially the issue of return of seized properties. Again, as reported, Prachanda has advised YCL cadres to behave in a proper manner.

It is high time to mull over the deadlock over the peace process. Be it the signing of the 12-point agreement or the Comprehensive Peace Accord, passing of the Interim Constitution, or formation of the interim government, the peace process has made a slow progress. Meanwhile, the core issue of holding CA elections in fearless and fair manner does not seem to engage the attention of the government and the eight-party alliance.

Analysts have viewed this situation from different angles. First, although a CA election was accepted as a meeting point by both sides, each used the pretext ultimately to suit their own interest. It helped the Maoists land safely into the realm of competitive politics and the seven-party alliance to come to power. Strangely, they are treating the CA election as a parliamentary election as they hope to continue in power only through it. To them, the primary function of the elected CA will be to provide governance first and only then to draft a new constitution. For this simple reason, the legislature-parliament has passed a lengthy Interim Constitution (IC) and the First-Past-the-Post system has been accepted as a component of the mixed electoral system for CA polls.

Secondly, it seems that both the sides accepted the peace process as a means to achieve their political goals: both appear to be concerned more about political gains than maintaining peace. Thirdly, the political parties are competing among themselves to widen their sphere of influence, thereby ignoring the demands of the Madhesis, indigenous nationalities, Dalits and women. Fourthly, there is a huge confidence deficit among the constituents of the eight-party alliance as one party is always apprehensive about the political mileage the other may gain. Finally, the slow yet steady peace process appears natural as it is difficult to mend the ways of a militia that was trained to fight but now has been forced to live in cantonments and undo their own actions in the course of insurgency.

The continued stalemate in the legislature-parliament has not been taken seriously by the eight-party government. The Maoists have called off their agitation inside the House as they have already been successful in registering amendments in the Constitution for establishment of a republic and now their demand for maintenance and management of the PLA cantonments has also been met. But since the demands of the Madhesi MPs are yet to be addressed, the stalemate might well continue.

The demand of the Madhesi MPs and the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF) to constitute a judicial commission to probe the killings in Madhes has now been addressed. But the delay can continue for three reasons. First, the government did not attach any importance to the killings of Madhesis and treated it as a trivial matter. Secondly, the government was under the pressure of the Maoists to ignore the demands as the latter are not ready to accept the political importance of the MJF leaders as they were once Maoist cadres themselves. The Maoists reason that it will be detrimental to their interest to allow the MJF to develop their own constituencies in Tarai as it was under their sphere of influence during the insurgency.

Thirdly, the government devoted considerable time in trying to suppress the sentiments of the Madhesis with an iron fist. The security forces were deployed in great numbers in that region, ignoring the fact that the Madhesi uprising was not the result of the actions of the MJF leaders, but a spontaneous outburst of the resentments of common Madhesis. Hence the issue needs to be considered with a cool and contemplative head. Armed suppression may be effective only temporarily. A well-reasoned solution is the need of the hour in order to bring about lasting peace and credible CA polls.

Prof Mishra is ex-election commissioner