KATHMANDU: The rumours of new power equation emerging have once again put in doubt the ability of major parties to write the new constitution on time. Less than nine months are left before the deadline (May 28) of drafting the new constitution will elapse, but the parties and their leaders are indulging in games to attain power or deprive others of the same. They believe they can influence the process of integrating Maoist combatants and writing the new constitution better as per their wishes only if they are at the helm.

Though the major political parties and their leaders keep reiterating at public forums that their top priority is to draft a new constitution, in reality their activities and priorities show they are after power. However, it is unlikely that a new power equation will emerge in near future. The major coalition partners — NC, UML and Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (Democratic) — and a few fringe parties do not want to invite greater risk by changing the equation and setting out company with the Maoists in the government.

Three top political players — Girija Prasad Koirala of NC, Madhav Kumar Nepal of UML and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of Unified CPN-Maoist — held talks on August 1 and agreed to set up a high-level political mechanism to chalk out crucial agendas. They also formed a task force to work out the modalities and terms of reference of the mechanism. The task force, comprising Narayan Kaji Shrestha ‘Prakash’ and Dev Gurung of Unified CPN-Maoist, Shrestha and Krishna Prasad Sitaula from NC and Ashok Rai and Bishnu Poudel from CPN-UM, has made little headway.

Recent activities, speeches and meetings of influential leaders of major three parties - Unified CPN-Maoist, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML - point to their keenness to change the current power equation. The UCPN-Maoist will be glad to see the back of this government at the earliest. It has been holding talks with the leaders of the NC and the UML and is putting pressure on the government from the streets and the parliament. Some leaders of the NC and the UML who expect ministerial berths in the new the government, are actively plotting to topple the government. The present coalition was formed with the support of 359 CA members. On September 5, seven CA members of the MJF-D and two members of the Rastriya Janamukti Party urged their parties to withdraw support to the government. However, the government will fall into minority only if at least 50 others join their ranks.

Rumours are rife that efforts are afoot to enlist the support of disgruntled elements to pull the plug on in the ruling coalition.

Troika talks

UCPN-M chairman Prachanda, NC senior leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and UML president Jhalanath Khanal held a meeting

in Himalaya Hotel on

September 4. They reportedly talked about alternative power equation.

Rift over Sujata’s

promotion

NC president Girija Prasad Koirala is actively working to promote his daughter and Foreign Minister Sujata Koirala to Deputy Prime Minister. Sujata refused to accompany the PM on his recent India visit. Koirala, on the other hand, has not hidden his displeasure over the recent cabinet reshuffle. He dashed to Kathmandu, cutting short his trip to Biratnagar a few days ago after cabinet was reshuffled without consulting him. A section of the NC is also riled with the government leadership

as it is ignoring NC’s agendas and proposals. Though a majority of NC leaders, including Sushil Koirala and Ram Chandra Paudel, are against promoting Sujata as DPM, some leaders, including Sher Bahadur Deuba, are silent in this regard.

Power hungry Maoists

UCPN-M wants to bring down the government at

any cost. It has come to the conclusion that it needs

to be at the helm to effect army integration and to

draft the constitution on schedule. It has been holding talks with NC and UML leaders to find ways of leading a new government.

NC, UML intra-party rift

Some leaders in both the parties want to change the present power equation. A few dissatisfied leaders in the NC think that they will be able to get ministerial berths in the new coalition. The UML, which has pro-Khanal and pro-Oli camps, is also divided on whether to continue the present coalition. Khanal-led group’s non-cooperative behaviour supports this fact. Some leaders of both the parties - NC and UML - think that the writing of the constitution is not possible without Maoists’ induction in the government.

MJF-D woes

A few CA members in the MJF-D are dissatisfied with the present leadership because they were denied ministerial berths in the latest cabinet-reshuffle. Of them seven announced withdrawal of their support to the government on September 5. Though they cited the row over the Vice President’s oath as the reason for their decision, sources say they had their misgivings on the latest cabinet-reshuffle.

Swearing-in row

Madhes-based parties are disappointed with the verdict of the Supreme Court to annul the oath taken by Vice President Paramanda Jha in Hindi last year. Following the verdict, he had to vacate his office. The government’s decision to withdraw security and other facilities he had been enjoying as a VP on Friday, further irked the Madhes-based parties.

They are now indulging in inter and intra-party talks to prepare a common policy in this regard.

Despite all these negative vibes, it will not be easy to topple the present government, as the strongest

and the largest sections of the coalition partners are firm to let the present coalition continue. They think that partnership with the Maoists too won’t be easy. Considering the fragility of the government, what will happen in the days to come is anybody’s guess.