It is difficult to comprehend whether PM Koirala does really correspond with what he actually wants to do and what he really means when he says something. He knows well that he and his party alone cannot draft and pass a constitution

The simplicity of PM Sushil Koirala can hardly be doubted as he has been doing three things continuously and simultaneously for the last several days. First, he has been assuring all agitating parties that their all demands will be met ultimately by the modified draft of the constitution being deliberated upon in the Constituent Assembly (CA) meetings.

Second, he has been inviting all to sit for dialogue and discussion than to agitate in the streets for the inclusion of their demands in the new constitution. Third, he receives cheques of any amount of all donors who come to donate to the Prime Minister’s relief fund, especially for the sufferers of the devastating earthquake almost every day since April 25.

He, perhaps, ignores even his position and also his other duties to be discharged as the head of the government. He is so simple that he seems to fail to remember that he is the Prime Minster of the country and also the chairman of the Party with the largest number of seats in the CA, slightly more than one–third of the seats in the House. It is definitely a negative strength, which is capable of obstructing the passage of the new constitution.

Interestingly, it is with this strength, GP Koirala did not allow the amendment to the Interim Constitution adopting proportional representation system in the CA election, which required a two-thirds majority. However, the majority of votes had passed it in the then Interim Legislature-Parliament.

His simplicity can be gauged by his action as he follows blindly the advice of the coalition partners and also the co-signatories of the 16-point agreement, since he, first of all, invited all opposition parties including Madhesis, Tharus, and Jajajatiis for talks through the national broadcast, followed by letters to them to come for negotiation.

Apparently, he expected that all agitating leaders will come straight away to the table for talks after receiving his letters. He does not realize that the agitating parties are agitating for some cause. They are not sandwiched like him between his two compulsions—his own commitment and the pressure from the coalition partner.

Apart from his simplicity, he appears to be unrealistic to invite the agitators for talks without showing any concern about their demands.

At least, the prevailing conditions on ground are to be made conducive so that they can sit and talk calmly. Sometimes it looks like that he cannot do more than send invitations to them in the present circumstances. He is handicapped in meeting the demands of the agitators.

It is difficult to comprehend whether whatever he does really corresponds with what he actually wants to do and what he really means when he says something. He knows well that he and his party alone cannot draft and pass a constitution. Even in his party, his writ hardly prevails.

There are opposing views on several issues in the party itself. The general convention of the party is overdue as the office-bearers of the central and other committees are to be elected within five years as per constitutional compulsion. Thanks to the Election Commission, which has not yet reminded the party to have a new mandate.

Perhaps, it is waiting for the Interim Constitution to be amended or a new constitution to be promulgated providing leverage over the five-year binding. PM Koirala has explicitly committed repeatedly that he will relinquish his office immediately after the promulgation of the new constitution. Originally, the new constitution was to be adopted and the leadership of the government was to be handed over to the CPN-UML by January last itself, which has been delayed for more than eight months, testing the patience of the would-be PM. Unless Koirala leaves his office, his successor cannot resume the office for which he is keenly waiting.

On the contrary, the political situation of the country gradually seems to be deteriorating as several parts of the country are under curfew and are witnessing strikes paralyzing the lives of the common people. Now, the PM has two options before him: either he has to complete the two-fold task of taking all agitators on board and adopt the constitution sooner the better or leave his post and let the new PM take over the responsibility and cooperate with him in solving the national problems. But, leaving the post at this juncture is very risky for him personally.

If he vacates the post of Prime Minister, it will be difficult for him to get re-elected as the president of the Nepali Congress. And if he does not become the party president, it may not be very easy for him to become the new president of the country, in case the election for presidency takes place as per the 16-point agreement. He is facing double losses. It may be catastrophic for him politically.

But the question remains—how long can he remain in power? He seems to have succeeded in prolonging his position to the extent he wanted, but further prolongation seems difficult costing both politically and economically, as these issues warrant a progressive, comprehensive and reconciliatory leadership at the earliest, otherwise, the nation will be put into a more conflicting situation which may not be good for the country as a whole.