Recognising farmers as first-grade citizens, promulgating a concrete policy regarding agricultural land to prevent being usurped by urbanisation, facilitating financial and technical support, and introducing government-facilitated markets offer the farmers diverse opportunities. This will not only help in containing labour migration but also prevent the population from swarming into the cities for jobs

I recall an Israeli telling me, "We can do gold farming in your country" upon learning that I was from Nepal. It was the year 2000 that I was deployed in Lebanon as a member of a peacekeeping mission. I was bewildered by his saying and couldn't figure out what he meant by that. On my way back to the duty station, I recalled him saying, "Nepal is extraordinarily rich in water resources and has fertile land". It was then that I realised that gold stood for rice grains that are ready to be harvested. It is astonishing for an Israeli, an outsider, to have profound knowledge about Nepal and such vision.

Nepal was an agriculture-based economy till the late 1970s. Till that time, 90 per cent of the population depended on agriculture for a livelihood. Nepal has entered a new epoch of socio-cultural and socio-economic transformation, putting an end to the notion of an agriculture-based society. Defining Nepali society has become outstandingly difficult as an agro-based society has transformed itself into a service-based one (at least in the cities), yet far off in the villages, nothing much has changed except that young energetic human capital (of 20-40 years) is draining out in the name of international labour migration.

The cataclysmic COV- ID-19 pandemic has smashed the world economy that contracted significantly, and Nepal couldn't remain untouched. Economic growth has been reduced to around 2 per cent, with the service sector, especially tourism and related services, and the labour market being particularly hit. The GDP that is based mostly on remittances and the service sector stumbled. The dependency on other nations to keep the industries running, lack of natural resources and the tottering economy due to COVID-19 and fear of the new variant Omicron insinuate whether Nepal can maintain consistent and sustainable economic growth.

The World Bank report of 1974 stated that the Nepali economy was agriculture dominant, accounting for 93 per cent of the labour force, 67 per cent of GDP and 80 per cent of export earnings. The comparative analysis of GDP contribution by sector in 2020 with that of 2010 published by Statista reveals that the agriculture sector's contribution shrank by around 10 per cent and industry by 3 per cent whereas the service sector climbed up by nearly 7 per cent. The attraction of foreign employment, uncultivated barren lands, surge in the city-centric population and loss of agricultural lands due to urbanisation could have led to a sharp decline in agricultural contribution to GDP. With declining agricultural and industrial inputs, tourism and remittance have contributed significantly to sustaining the GDP growth of Nepal.

Nepal's GDP decreased by 1.88 per cent in 2020 as compared to the previous year and recorded a trade deficit of Rs 100,478.90 million in April of 2021, implying imports have over-

whelmingly outflanked exports.

Nepal Rastra Bank report 2021 says foreign reserves have declined and the import trade has climbed up, leading to the trade deficit. This is not a healthy sign for a low-income economy like Nepal as the devaluation of its currency becomes eminent.

Additionally, import of agricultural products has also surged, making a mockery of its then proud agro-based economy.

The high hills of Nepal are reported to have the highest concentration of livestock per unit area of cultivated land anywhere in the world with 10 livestock units per family in the mid-hills and 15 in the high hills. The World Bank report 1974 states that the government in the 70s identified the hills as a potential area for horticulture development and livestock production capable of transforming the hills into productive assets. The virgin pasturelands (12%) in the hilly and mountainous region offer ample space for livestock farming. In the long run, Nepal can sustain itself in meat products to cut imports and reduce the trade deficit while even exporting quality meat products.

Recognising farmers as first-grade citizens, promulgating a concrete policy regarding agricultural land to prevent being usurped by urbanisation, facilitating financial and technical support, and introducing government-facilitated markets offer the farmers and energetic youths diverse opportunities.

Corporate farming or government-owned farming (like the Kibbutz in Israel) shows promise. It will not only help in containing labour migration but also prevent the population from swarming into the cities for jobs.

Foreign investment is an important source of development, finance and foreign currency reserve. Nepal can expedite its international relations to attract investments.

Taiwan since the 1960s has undergone structural transformation and achieved miraculous rapid and sustained economic growth, establishing itself as a development model. It is home to the world's leading semiconductor industry, feeding an insatiable market for the most advanced chips for automobiles, 5G, and smart devices.

Exploiting the surging global demands for technology components and products, with a careful and neatly articulated binding regulatory foreign investment policy that does not compromise on national interest, Nepal could also become a potential semiconductor manufacturing country that offers cheap labour.

It is crucial for the government to control private trade and the industry sector through a partnership that strengthens a mechanism to contain their influence on policies as they have rarely served the national interest.

Optimum utilisation of natural resources, especially water, and spatial and climate diversity backed by articulated policies and programmes hold potential for economic growth. It is never late to start with innovation that has been overlooked so far for whatever reasons.


A version of this article appears in the print on December 3, 2021 of The Himalayan Times.