Scientists at the prestigious Indian Institute of Science (IISc) based in the southern Indian city of Bangalore say that field studies of climate change impacts in India are currently non-existent, with no attention being given to them. This is despite the fact that the IISc has contributed actively to the assessments of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments and published extensively on climate change research.

“There is a good beginning on the impact of climate change on flora, but a beginning has hardly been made on all the other fields,” says Prof. NH Ravindranath, associate faculty at IISc’s Centre for Ecological Studies(CES).

Prof. Kartik Shankar of the CES, who has been studying the habits of Olive Ridley and Leatherback turtles on India’s eastern and southern coastline, feels climate change is a difficult area to study since its impacts show up only in the long term. “Apart from a few areas in Orissa where violent storms in recent years have washed away nesting sites, it’s hard to distinguish what exactly can be attributed to climate change,” he said. CES chairman Raman Sukumar thinks the entire system of wildlife conservation in India will need an overhaul.

“We need to relook at the present-day network of Protected Areas, consider how future climate change is expected to affect different regions with faunal species and then plan accordingly,” he said. A study of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems in India (Current Science, February 2006) by Ravindranath, Sukumar, NV Joshi of IISc and A Saxena of the Forest Survey Institute shows a major shift in forest types by 2085. The State of Forest Report 2003 says 16 major forest types, from alpine pastures to tropical savanna, cover 67.8m ha or 20.64 per cent of the country’s geographical area, with 1.56 per cent very dense forests, 10.32 per cent moderately dense forests and 8.76 per cent open forests.

The projected changes in these forests are principally due to increased temperatures of 2-4 degrees C in the southern region and possibly exceeding 4 degrees C in the northern region. Rainfall days are set to decrease in general, but its intensity will increase, as per India’s National Communication 2004 to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Nearly 68-77 per cent of Indian forests are likely to undergo a sea change to another forest type by 2085. “In other words, over half of the vegetation is likely to find itself less optimally adapted to its existing location,” states the Current Science paper. The actual negative impact may be even more because of a ‘domino effect’ on other species due to the inter-dependency of plant-animal-microbe communities.

“It is important for all government departments to first recognise that there is a potentially serious issue called climate change that has to be factored in during the planning process,” says Sukumar. The IISc scientists have brought the attention of the Ministry of Environment and Forests to the issue, suggesting recommendations. “Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forest biodiversity in India, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity and develop adaptation measures at the local, regional and national level,” says the 2006 communiqué by Ravindranath, Sukumar

and others. — IPS