The possibility of any important electoral alliance between any two of the major national parties appears remote now. Whatever adjustment might just take place between them would, however, have to be made informally. But still, the question that arises is how to get such an agreement across to the voters and convince them that they should vote for such a common candidate, not for anybody else. This kind of poll adjustment is likely to be only partially effective. Two Tarai-based parties, among the three which had led the recent Tarai agitation — the Mahanth Thakur-led Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) and the Rajendra Mahato-led Sadbhawana Party (SP) — have entered into an electoral alliance under which they are to support each other in 40 constituencies, thus boosting the poll prospects of their candidates. Upendra Yadav of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF), however, claims that an alliance in the Tarai that leaves out the MJF, ‘synonymous with the Madhes movement’, is meaningless.

More such adjustments might happen before polling day on April 10. This may also be because no electoral wave has been visible in the Tarai in favour of any party, including any of the Tarai-based parties that had recently steered the agitation for the ‘Madhesi’ cause, or across the country in general for any of the big national parties. The election outcome is therefore likely to throw up a few surprises and shocks. The signs do not suggest that the outcome may go the way of the 1999 general election, as important new variables have entered the national political equations since then. Each major national party is claiming that it will win a majority in the election, but such a claim is not unnatural during the campaigning where a lot of exaggeration is expected. What is also expected and tolerated is a certain degree of coldness in the relations between rivals.

But some of the parties — particularly the CPN-Maoist and the CPN-UML — may well be exceeding the proper limits of rivalry. This is also making it less likely that they may work out a formula for ensuring the election of top leaders of each party — say, at least five each — though many people outside those parties, including civil society members, have been stressing the soundness of this idea. The presence of the top leaders of the political parties of some influence would make the CA qualitatively better. Besides, it would help reduce the sourness between them. Meanwhile, the CPN-Maoist and the Janamorcha Nepal, a small Left party, have forged an electoral alliance under which they will be supporting each other’s candidates in seventeen constituencies. Electoral adjustments might affect the outcome of a maximum of 240 seats, because about 60 per cent are to be filled through proportional representation. But most parties seem to have taken the CA election as if it were not much different from the regular general election. If they fought this election in a cooperative and accommodative spirit — because there is so much common between them on the most vital issues — it would benefit them and the nation more. Even now, it is, probably, not too late.