Everything is not lost yet. Eight-party effort continues to find a way out of the crisis even after the Maoists decided to pull out of the interim government. The four Maoist ministers’ resignations are yet to be accepted. This leaves room for hope. At the same time, any effort at solution appears unlikely to bear fruit without redressing the Maoist demands, including two key ones – pre-CA parliamentary declaration of a republic and switchover to full proportional representation to elect the members of the constituent assembly (CA). However, it is just possible that, to save the situation, the eight parties will come up with a formula acceptable to all. Sadly, the Maoists decided to quit the government. But it is not the end of the peace process. The Maoists have said that they will not leave the Legislature-Parliament, the PLA soldiers will remain in the cantonments, and they will abide by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which forms the basis for the peace process.

But Maoist pullout constitutes a big setback. The Maoists have declared that the elections are impossible without the fulfilment of their 22 ‘conditions for free, fair and credible polls’, and also that they will not allow the ‘farcical polls’ to be held. If no way out can be found before the election process starts a few days hence, and if the Maoists persist in their stand, as is likely, the polls may well be written off on the stipulated date. The Maoists’ protests commenced on the same day – Tuesday – on which they announced their protest programme at a mass meeting at the Open Air Theatre. And the first round is to culminate in a three-day-long nationwide general strike. More may come. They have also hinted that if force were used to suppress their ‘peaceful movement’, they would counter accordingly. So, things stand now at a critical point. Missteps might derail the entire peace process, plunging the country into an unknown period of confusion, uncertainty and violence.

Indulging in the blame game will not resolve the crisis – plausible arguments can be advanced in favour of both the Maoist chairman Prachanda’s and Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s stand. Nor will analysis of the kind “what alternative will the Maoists have if they leave the government?” as articulated recently by some political leaders. The past has taught us the dangers of such armchair or overconfident views. On the Maoists’ part, now that they have taken the plunge, it will be impossible for them to return to the government, without suffering considerable political damage and loss of face, unless they can give the public a credible impression of having got their way. To break the impasse, Koirala’s role will be vital. The current crisis is a major trial of his statesmanship. On being voted Prime Minister, Koirala had told the parliament that to become Prime Minister was not a big thing, but to bring all sides together and win their trust was. “If I could not deliver”, he declared, “I would bow out”. The present crisis puts Koirala’s leadership of the interim government to a crucial test.