The US invasion of Iraq and the socio-political collapse thereafter have sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. I felt them firsthand during a recent month-long sojourn in Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Today, four main political ideas are battling for support in Arab nations. The outcome of this contest during the next three to five years is likely to determine the future of this strategically crucial region for a generation to come.

The first of these ideas is Pan-Arab secular nationalism. Today, it has assumed an increasingly Syria-bound focus. But Pan-Arabic sentiments remain widespread, upheld by common media and cultural activities. The rise of (Persian, not Arab) Iran has stimulated some “Pan-Arabist” concern in many Arab publics. Second, State-based secular nationalism. A Lebanese citizen generally feels Lebanese, a Bahraini feels Bahraini, and so on. Inside Iraq, the war-spurred collapse of the central state has led to sectarian bloodbaths. In other Arab countries, many citizens have responded by rallying around the idea of a functioning central state.

Third, Sunni Islamism. A large majority of Arabs are Sunni Muslims. Within the Arab world’s Sunni communities, many forms of Islamist activism have flourished. By far, the broadest Sunni Islamist movement is the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). In its birthplace in Egypt, today’s MB is a broad-based, nonviolent movement that has a quasi-legal political presence. In Jordan, too, the MB is nonviolent and has a nearly legal political existence that’s tolerated by

the country’s pro-US ruler. In Syria, the local MB clashed very violently with the regime in the early 1980s; it has been harshly repressed there ever since.

Fourth, Shiite Islamism. The main Shiite political movements in the Arab world are Hizbullah in Lebanon and the array of Shiite parties in Iraq, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa Party. Historically excluded from power by the Sunnis, the Arab Shiites now feel empowered by Iran’s rise. But most also consider themselves strongly Arab, and they bridle at accusations that they’re a pro-Iranian fifth column in the Arab world. In Iraq, the large-scale, often violent contest for political power between Shiite and Sunni movements has been well reported. Throughout the whole Arab world, the interactions among the four trends described above has been complex — and sometimes quite surprising. How should those of us outside the region view these movements? It’s not for outsiders to decree that other political systems should ban all religion or sect-based political parties. (Such parties have long participated in democratic systems in Germany, India, and Israel.) The more important task is to establish strong norms for the nonviolent resolution of conflicts both within and among nations. Within nations, the best way to do this is through democracy. Any party that commits to democratic principles and wins a mandate from the voters should be welcomed into the system. — The Christian Science Monitor