A tiny step was taken on Saturday in meeting the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced. But it was nearly a step backward as the crucial climate talks in Bali almost collapsed when the US refused to join the global consensus. However, after Kevin Conrad representing Papua New Guinea told the US delegation to please get out of the way, the US reversed its position and accepted what is called the “Bali roadmap”.

But before considering this new political roadmap on climate change, what route did the scientific roadmap tell us ? A month ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, issued urgent warnings that global emissions of greenhouse gases must peak and begin to decline within 10 to 15 years. Many of world’s leading climate scientists have said that failure is not an option because it will irreversibly destabilise the climate system.

The millions of people already being affected by climate change will rapidly become hundreds of millions without major reductions. And there is a high risk that unique ecosystems that sustain life, such as coral reefs, will collapse. Climate science says the first important step on our journey to prevent dangerous climate change is for industrialised countries to reduce their emissions by 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Representatives from industrialised countries actually agreed with the scientists at a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting last August in Vienna.

The Bali roadmap is essentially an agreement to start a two-year process of negotiations designed to agree on a new set of emissions targets to replace those in the Kyoto Protocol. While this may not seem like much progress, there had been serious debate about a longer negotiation period which would postpone action well into the future. And until the last, the US — which alone which accounts for about a quarter of the world’s global warming emissions — objected to a specific declaration that “deep cuts in global emissions” were needed, saying the science remains uncertain.

While the principles of sustainable development were largely being ignored in Bali, said Simone Lovera of the Global Forest Coalition, an environmental NGO based in Paraguay, there were still hopeful signs, such as the Dutch agreement to stop subsidising oil palm for use as biodiesel and Norway’s $2.8 billion commitment to help developing countries.

Most NGOs issued statements saying the Bali roadmap is vague, and lacking ambition. And everyone is waiting for the Bush administration to leave office, setting up huge expectations for the country’s new president. “Politicians can no longer say they didn’t know climate change is anurgent issue,” Hans Verolme, director of WWF’s Global Climate Change Programme, saidat the formal release of the IPCC Synthesis Report. “Bali will show the world what they are ready to do,” Verolme said. At the moment, just a small step forward. — IPS