Feizal Samath:

Sri Lankan president Kumaratunga bashes her main political opponent. Opposition rues the chance for all parties to get together in the post-tsunami period. The Marxist People’s Liberation Front hits out at Tigers, Norwegian peacekeepers and even its own coalition partner and its leader. The LTTE accuses the government of blocking food and relief aid to rebel-held north.

Amidst all this turmoil, former US presidents George W Bush and Bill Clinton visit Sri Lanka and tour the tsunami-affected south. Enter the real world of Sri Lanka where turmoil and peace go hand in hand and where, nearly two months after tidal waves wrec-ked the country’s coastline, an informal “ceasefire” between parties has been broken.

The unity among arch political foes lasted a few weeks and then the first political shots were fired. Today newspapers, television and radio are filled with the usual rhetoric of government politicians slinging mud at their opponents and the latter returning the compliments. These battles have slowed down the post-tsunami reconstruction process with one of the biggest hurdles being the controversial 100 metres buffer zone plan, which is banning all construction on the coastline within 100 metres from the shore.

A huge outcry has broken out over the plan with fisher families being particularly opposed to it as they fear being relocated far away from the old homes. The government says the plan is meant to protect the people but seaside communities say another tsunami is unlikely to hit the country for another 100 years. The opposition United National Party (UNP) is battering the government and is backing opponents of the plan.

In the past few days, Wickremesinghe has also been criss-crossing the countryside addressing village-level meetings in an election campaign-like trek across the country, even though there is no election in sight. But Kumaratunga made a strange statement some days back referring to “elections after April 2”. The last poll was held in April 2004 and won by Kumaratunga’s coalition by a slender margin while presidential polls are not due until December. But if one is to closely analyse the developments in the past few weeks, polls could be on the horizon. In recent years, at least three to four UNP MPs have crossed over to government ranks.

The strategy is simply this: Barred by the constitution in contesting a third term of office as president, Kumaratunga knows the only way to remain in power is by scrapping presidential rule and reverting back to the old Westminster model. But first she needs to amend the constitution by scrapping the presidency, which is near impossible since she needs a comfortable majority in the legislature to approve such legislation. That’s where the vote buying and crossovers become important. If Kumaratunga can woo a sizable number of UNP MPs to her side, that would give her the majority she needs and the support required to push through amendments.

Now where does that leave the post-tsunami reconstruction process? The work will go on but slower and with more bureaucratic hurdles to overcome. Money for reconstruction is in the pipeline but government agencies are getting back into the usual lethargy and approvals are slow in coming, frustrating many aid workers and private donors. Political interference is also threatening all the goodwill that Sri Lanka received from many government and people across the world.

Samath, a freelancer, writes for THT from Colombo