The next visit of a special UN envoy to military-ruled Burma is in danger of turning into a farce. Ibrahim Gambari’s mission, in early March, comes on the heels of the junta jettisoning its commitments to the world body to hold a dialogue with Burma’s pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, as part of a political reform process that is open and accommodating.

The junta, which has renamed the country Myanmar, has a new political reality for the UN envoy to grapple with. In addition to making a sudden announcement in mid-February that it will conduct a referendum in May for a controversial new constitution, the military leaders have said that Suu Kyi will be barred from participating in the 2010 parliamentary elections.

The success or failure of Gambari’s visit will be gauged on what he achieves in the wake of the junta’s tough line to pursue its political agenda, which is to entrench the military’s power in the South-east Asian country at the expense of a genuine, inclusive political solution. How he handles the ban on Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for over 12 years, will test the resolve of the world body’s commitment towards the country’s beleaguered people.”We don’t believe he can produce any positive results from his upcoming trip. He has already failed and this visit is just to confirm again that he fails,” says Aung Din, executive director of the US Campaign for Burma, a Washington -based lobby group. “The regime has rejected all of his recommendations and decided to continue its one-sided act. Ironically, he endorsed the regime’s plan to continue its one-sided act as the significant step forward.”

If the UN wants to be taken seriously on Burma, Gambari and Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon “have to admit that they failed,” Aung Din added. “They have to make a sincere judgement on their mandate and mission, and not to make the world believe that there are some developments in Burma.”The international outrage that followed the crackdown forced the junta to open its doors and let Gambari in. During his two visits, he secured a commitment from the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the junta is formally known, to start a dialogue with Suu Kyi. That breakthrough was hailed, since the UN envoy appeared to have won support from the generals for an inclusive political reform process, including a role for the leader of the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in drafting the constitution.

But reality proved otherwise. In January, Suu Kyi revealed that she was not satisfied with the five rounds of talks she had had with the junta’s liaison officer, Labour Minister Aung Kyi. The political ban on the NLD leader stems from a clause that has been written into the new constitution, which was drafted over a 14-year period. Under this clause, Burmese citizens married to foreigners are prevented from running for the post of president. Suu Kyi was married to Michael Aris, a British academic, who died in 1999.

If Gambari comes out in support of the new constitution, then it means that the UN is also endorsing such undemocratic features of the charter, Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese political analyst explained in an interview. “The Burmese regime will not change its mind now. I don’t think the UN will be left with any credibility after this,” he said. — IPS