The clock is ticking fast for Sri Lanka to take advantage of its ‘demographic dividend’ and get young people to participate in the country’s economic future — before ageing hits the population in next 25 years.

Demographers say that over the next 25 years, the share of Sri Lanka’s over-60 population will double from about 10 to 20 per cent when a similar occurrence can happen in countries like France and the US only after a century. “This unprecedented speed of ageing is driven by a rapid decline of fertility coupled by a strong increase of life expectancy, which, over last 40 years, occurred much faster than in the rest of the world,” as per a World Bank study.

The demographic dividend is a rise in economic growth due to a rising share in people of working age within a population. This usually occurs when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency rate declines and was said to be the main factor in the emergence of the East Asian Tigers. For Sri Lanka the dilemma is that while the country desperately needs to mobilise its youth for productive work in the next few decades, youth unemployment is the highest in the region.

“The world is facing a youth bulge, where the 12-24 age group is larger than ever. Some see this as a fiscal and economic risk because governments have to allocate a lot of resources to take care of them. But this is also an opportunity because of the increase of workforce, creating an opportunity to invest in other things. However, this window of opportunity is open only for about 40 years depending on fertility rates, and then ageing will close this window,” notes the country director of the WB in Sri Lanka Naoko Ishii.

Speaking at the launch of the Bank’s latest World Development Report, titled ‘Development and the Next Generation,’ Ishii said: “In countries like Japan and Italy this window of opportunity closed about a decade ago. In developing countries like India and Bangladesh the window will remain open for another three decades. In Sri Lanka the window of opportunity will close within a decade. So you must seize this opportunity quickly,” she said. Currently, Sri Lanka has some 20 million people, a number that is expected to grow and stabilise at 22 million after 40 years.

A 2006 WB study carried out at the University of Colombo found that college graduates waste several years before finding jobs. The Youth Employment Network under the ministry of youth affairs has got cracking with a programme that aims to cut youth unemployment to nine per cent of the workforce from 22 per cent in 2005.

But WB experts say that despite an open economy, jobs are still dependent on ‘connections’ rather than qualifications. ‘’Some 64 per cent of young workers reported that they were recruited through recommendations,” WB senior social protection economist Milan Vodopovic said. He also said government ad hoc recruitment policies will contribute to queuing and thus to unemployment. Queuing means waiting for a ‘proper’ job to turn up.

Coupled with an ageing population, Sri Lanka is facing a major crisis. Prof. Indralal De Silva, one of Sri Lanka’s population experts, says other populations age when their economies are prosperous, but here there is rapid growth while economic prosperity is down. “We have an ageing population that would be a burden on the country.” — IPS