The deadline for the Constituent Assembly (CA) is merely four months away, and in the minds of many, including leaders of the eight parties, uncertainty over the holding of the CA polls still looms large, judging by their public statements, let alone the doubts haunting the public. A lot of homework is yet to be done, and to make up for lost time, things have to be hurried on a war footing. A little more delay might well push back the CA polls by at least another six months (because of the onset of the monsoon) which is a considerable time for undesirable political manoeuvring to flourish. Fears are being expressed that certain powerful interests at home and abroad who had been uncomfortable with the agenda of the April Jana Andolan would want to see the CA polls postponed, and some have begun reminding the people of the possibility of a repeat of the post-1950 popular movement when the promised CA polls were never held. The rest is history.

The poll date has yet to be announced. The Interim Constitution has to be amended to incorporate the contents of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s recent address to the nation, and several electoral laws have to be either enacted or amended, to pave the way for the CA polls — by deciding on a number of things, such as the electoral system, mode of the use of ballot paper, the formation of a CA election court, updating of the electoral rolls against all odds, and the redrawing of the electoral constituencies. There are going to be 11,000 polling booths and 6,000 sub-polling booths and adequate security arrangements for these have to be made. The Election Commission (EC) has called for additional arrangements to ensure all this. Chief election commissioner Bhoj Raj Ghimire on Sunday told top political leaders that the CA polls would not be possible in mid-June if all related laws were not put in place within this month.

Without the needed legislation, the EC will not be able to move things forward in any respect. Besides, there have been demands from various quarters and political parties for this or that thing even before the CA polls are held, and they have been pushing their cases through bandhs, strikes and demonstrations, both peaceful and violent. The government needs to give an ear to these demands, separating the reasonable from the unreasonable. Indeed, many of

the grievances of these groups can properly be addressed only by the CA, including most of the demands put forth by the organisers of the recent Madhesi movement. Besides, the failure to hold the CA polls on schedule may well prove to be costly to the SPA alliance. The Maoists have made clear that they will start a strong “peaceful” movement should such an eventuality arise. Maoist chairman Prachanda has said that the Maoists will not join the interim government if the CA polls are not to be held in mid-June. So the fallout is likely to be pervasive and unpleasant, holding the country hostage to a prolonged period of transition, uncertainty and instability, making the forces of regression and status quo none too unhappy.