NEWS ANALYSIS : Politically fractured Bihar is the acid test for Sonia, Cong future

Himalayan News Service

New Delhi, February 27:

With Bihar throwing up a badly hung assembly and two of her allies having undone each other, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has the unenviable task of sewing up a secular patch-up in one of India’s key states.

It could well turn out to be her biggest political challenge since she led the Congress party to power after general elections in May last year at the head of a centre-left coalition.

Having quietly plotted the downfall of her ally and Railway Minister Lalu Prasad by openly siding with his foe Steel Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, Gandhi is sure to find the going tough. Her colleagues admit as much.

The Congress faces the challenge of preventing the BJP and Janata Dal-United from poaching on smaller parties to cobble together a coalition in Bihar, with or without Paswan.

To add to Gandhi’s woes, her overconfidence in Jharkhand, where she ignored RJD while reaching an electoral pact with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, also failed. The Congress-JMM failed to win a majority in the 81-member assembly, and the BJP-led combine finished on top in a hung assembly.

Sonia Gandhi, however, cannot hurt Lalu Prasad beyond a point without hurting herself. The RJD is essentially a Bihar-centric party and has ruled the state since 1990. It has 24 crucial seats in the Lok Sabha and is the second largest member of the Cong-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Anand Sharma, the Congress spokesperson said his party would play a “key role” in ensuring the placement of a secular government in Bihar. But with Paswan reiterating that his priority is to see the ouster of RJD, it will be a thankless job for Gandhi.

Though Lalu Prasad’s RJD has already sought Paswan’s support to form a government in Bihar, Paswan has refused to shake hands with him.

The best bet for the Congress is to somehow change Paswan’s thinking. Unfortunately for the Congress, Paswan — who despite public denials would love to become the Bihar chief minister — has given hints he could take support from anyone to dislodge Lalu’s wife Chief Minister Rabri Devi to bring down Lalu Prasad. If that happens, Sonia Gandhi can expect trouble from both Paswan and Lalu Prasad in New Delhi, with disastrous consequences. A senior Congress leader admitted: “Lalu Prasad will never forgive the Congress for what has happened. Bihar is and was Lalu’s pride and if someone hurts him there, he will never forgive it.”