VIENTIANE, OCTOBER 9
Southeast Asian leaders gathered Wednesday for an annual forum that will focus on the civil war in Myanmar and territorial tensions in the South China Sea, two key challenges that have tested the bloc's credibility.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Laos will be followed by two days of meetings with global powers including China, the United States and Russia, which are contending for influence in the region.
The timing of the meetings in the capital, Vientiane, makes it likely the talks will also touch on the escalating conflict in the Middle East, although Southeast Asia has faced only indirect fallout.
ASEAN's influence has historically been limited even among its own members, but the forum has been a platform for engagement between superpowers and the region.
The 10 member states of ASEAN - Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos - will also hold talks with other dialogue partners including Japan, South Korea, India and Australia on topics ranging from the economy, to climate change and energy.
Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone welcomed new leaders from Thailand and Singapore to the summit in his opening speech.
"We help one another, and work together the ASEAN way," he said. "We will discuss and strengthen cooperation between ASEAN members and other dialogue partners, along with upholding the unity and centrality of ASEAN."
Thailand's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took the premiership in August, is the bloc's youngest leader at 38. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong took over in May from Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down after 20 years. Vietnam also has a new leader after President To Lam took office in August, but the country is being represented by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, ASEAN's biggest member, is skipping the forum as his successor Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this month, sending Vice President Ma'ruf Amin in his stead. It will also be the first overseas trip for Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was confirmed just last week.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will fill in for President Joe Biden at the meetings, while China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang.
Frayed U.S.-China relations, especially "escalatory and irresponsible" moves by Beijing to coerce smaller claimant countries in the disputed South China Sea, will be a major agenda item for Blinken, said Dan Kritenbrink, a top U.S. diplomat for Asia.
ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei , along with Taiwan have overlapping claims with China, which claims sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea and has become increasingly aggressive in its attempts to enforce them.
ASEAN members and China have been negotiating a code of conduct to govern behavior in the sea for years, but progress has been slow. Sticky issues include disagreement on whether the pact should be binding.
Chinese and Philippine vessels have clashed repeatedly this year, and Vietnam charged last week that Chinese forces assaulted its fishermen in disputed areas in the South China Sea.
China has also sent patrol vessels to areas that Indonesia and Malaysia claim as exclusive economic zones. The Philippines, a longtime U.S. ally, has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away.
Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman, research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said there's little chance of clear outcomes as those not in direct conflict with China - the region's top trade and key investment partner - will likely prioritize ties with Beijing,
"It is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible," he said. "In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests."
Indonesian Vice President Ma'ruf Amin called for the code of conduct to be completed by 2026 and urged high-level officials to bolster direct communications to prevent conflicts in the South China Sea. He also called Myanmar "ASEAN's biggest internal challenge" and warned it could threaten regional stability if it remains unresolved.
Blinken is also expected to urge ASEAN to keep up its pressure on Myanmar's military leaders after "zero progress" on the bloc's peace plan that calls for cease-fire and mediation, Kritenbrink said. The U.S. is concerned over the military government's plan to hold elections next year that would be neither representative nor inclusive, and could generate more violence, he said.
"Elections should not take place prior to genuine peace and reconciliation, and we'll continue to make that position clear," he said.
ASEAN's credibility has been severely tested by the war in Myanmar, where the army ousted an elected government in 2021, and fighting has continued with pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic rebels. It's widely believed that considerably less than half the country's territory is under the army's control.
Thailand will host an informal ASEAN ministerial-level consultation on Myanmar in mid-December, although it is unclear who will attend from Myanmar.
"Thailand is ready to coordinate to create a concerted ASEAN effort that will lead to peace in Myanmar," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balangurahe told reporters.
Myanmar sent Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit, its first high-level representative at the summit in three years, after ASEAN barred it from sending political representatives in late 2021.
Allowing a senior Myanmar diplomat to join the meetings "will be perceived as ASEAN is compromising, confirming the concern that ASEAN is experiencing fatigue in dealing with the crisis," said Lina Alexandra, senior researcher at Indonesia's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Chances for any significant breakthrough remain slim, she said.
