Feizal Samath

Colombo, April 2:

Tamil Tiger guerrillas appeared ready to play the crucial role of power broker in the formation of Sri Lanka’s new government after parliamentary polls ended today with few incidents reported.

Election officials said polling was very high – for the first time – in northern areas while the rest of the country also recorded a 70-75 per cent turnout.

The results of the election, unlikely to throw up a clear winner between the Freedom Alliance (UPFA) led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s ruling United National Front (UNF), would be known tomorrow evening, officials said. Close to 10 million people voted in the fifth election in six years.The election campaign was probably the most lacklustre in the past decade because of poor public participation at rallies and other events.

Police said five people died during the campaign, including two candidates from the UNF, a welcome fall from more than 56 deaths recorded at the 2001 election. All the deaths occurred in Batticaloa where a local LTTE leader broke away from the group and formed his own militant organisation last month. Opinion polls in recent weeks by two independent pollsters have indicated no clear winner.

While the trends have indicated that Kumaratunga’s pact with a former Marxist guerrilla group-turned political party would help the UPFA secure about 100 seats as against a slightly lesser number from the UNF in the 225-seat parliament, the ultimate choice of a parliamentary majority and the formation of a government lies with minority parties representing Tamil and Muslim interests.

“The UNF has the support of the minorities and I believe can form the government even if it gets less than the UPFA,” said a veteran journalist who has covered elections in the past 20 years. Wickremesinghe’s party is certain to get the support of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), clearly acting as proxy of the LTTE.

The TNA is expected to secure at least 20 seats in the northern and eastern areas, once claimed by Tamil rebels as their homeland , putting it in a powerful position to decide which group forms the next government. Any new regime must control at least 113 seats in parliament.

At the last December 2001 poll, the UNF secured 109 seats against 93 by Kumaratunga’s party and its allies. The UNF formed the government with the support of 16 seats from the Tamil United Liberation Front, also seen as acting according to the dictates of the rebels.

Political analysts note that Kumaratunga and Somawansa Amarasinghe, a former Marxist rebel who leads the People’s Liberation Front or JVP and is the UPFA’s partner organisation, would also be willing to offer concessions to Tamil rebels if it means enlisting their support to form a government. The JVP is unhappy about unconditional peace talks with the rebels but is unlikely to stick with this position if LTTE support is crucial.

Analysts said that with no mainstream political party likely to command a majority, Sri Lankan minority parties for the umpteenth time are calling the shots. Even if the UNF were to muster a parliamentary majority, the rift with Kumaratunga would deepen.