Ukraine ready to reconcile with Russia

KIEV: The candidates in Ukraine's presidential runoff next month stood on opposite sides of the barricades in the 2004 Orange Revolution but when it comes to Russia, they see nearly eye to eye.

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych both pledge to reconcile Ukraine with its giant neighbor to the east, by far Ukraine's biggest trading partner and the region's dominant military power.

In the future, NATO membership appears to be out. There will be far less Kremlin-bashing in Kiev, and relations with Georgia will not be nearly as close as they were under Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, who was trounced in Sunday's ballot.

Five years ago many Orange protesters dreamed of breaking Ukraine's historic dependence on Moscow and becoming part of Western Europe.

But they've had a rude awakening, in the form of an battle with Russia over energy prices, the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and one of the worst recessions in Europe.

All seemed to demonstrate that like it or not, Ukraine couldn't get along without good relations with Moscow, its historic ally.

With about 82.5 percent of ballots counted Monday, Yanukovych had some 35.7 percent while Tymoshenko was second with 24.8 percent. The 16 other candidates trailed behind — including Yushchenko, with just 5.4 percent of the vote. Only the two top finishers are eligible for the runoff.

The blunt-spoken Yanukovych, a former electrician and factory manager who became prime minister before the Orange Revolution, has pledged to scrap Ukraine's NATO bid and elevate Russian to the status of a second official language alongside Ukrainian.

Tymoshenko, a heroine of the pro-Western revolt, in 2007 criticized what she called Russia's imperial ambitions. But in the past year she has made peace with the Kremlin on energy and security issues.

After the vote Sunday, Tymoshenko thanked supporters for ignoring attacks against her.

"Despite the great campaign of discrimination that was launched by all the oligarchs who rallied around Yanukovych, people showed their wisdom, trust and faith in me," she said.

Despite warnings of large-scale election fraud in the days leading up to Sunday's vote, officials and election observers said the ballot seemed fair and orderly.

Five years ago, fraud allegations sent tens of thousands of Ukrainians into the streets of Kiev, demanding an end to what they regarded as a corrupt regime. After weeks of protests, Yushchenko beat Yanukovych in a court-ordered revote.

Yushchenko's win was hailed in the West as a victory by democratic forces over the cynical veterans of Ukraine's Soviet regime. But in Moscow, many saw it as part of a Western plot to surround and weaken Russia.

After his election, Yushchenko became embroiled in political skirmishing that paralyzed the government and he failed to push through many of his promised reforms.

Yanukovych seemed elated by his victory over Yushchenko, his old rival, on Sunday.

"Today marks the end of Orange power," he said. "There will be no room for (Yushchenko) in the second round. He has officially lost the faith of the people."

Ukraine's currency crashed in 2008, the economy sputtered and the International Monetary Fund had to step in with a $16.4 billion (euro11.41 billion) bailout. Ukraine's gross domestic product plunged by 15 percent in 2009, according to the World Bank, which estimates that the country will see anemic growth this year.

Some analysts said that despite Tymoshenko's second-place finish, her sharp political instincts give her the edge in the Feb. 7 runoff vote.

"Yanukovych's voter base has been exhausted. Although it was strong and compact and never betrayed him, it did not grow," said Viktor Nebozhenko, director of the sociology institute Ukrainian Barometer. "Tymoshenko, as a great communicator, has chances to win this election."