The political arena of Nepal is resonating with the concern regarding the longevity of the present coalition government. Whist the members of the coalition predict its long-term continuation, its leading party, the Nepali Congress, has maintained a hushed silence indicating that it may end before the forthcoming elections in view of such opinion expressed by the leaders of this party like the political wizard, Shekhar Koirala.

The coalition government in Nepal has its history going back to the early nineties when it was formed by yoking the Nepali Congress and Rastriya Prajatantra Party in the year 1995, of which Sher Bahadur Deuba was the Prime Minister.

The first ever coalition is said to date back to the First World War, when Britain formed a coalition government also known as the National Government. In neighbouring India, the first coalition government was formed after independence when Jawahar Lal Nehru formed a government with the Muslim League, Hindu Sabha and the Republican Party from 1946-52. Now it has become a norm in India with the Bharatiya Janata Party running the coalition of more than 20 parties, known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the Congress with a few less as the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

A coalition government is formed by cobbling together two or more parties for securing a majority in case of its absence in the parliament. Generally, the coalition partners agree on a pre poll common minimum programme, which acts as the basis for their smooth functioning. The present coalition led by the NC had released a 14-page common programme on August 8, 2021, which consisted of resolving the border problems with India through dialogue and strengthening border security amongst many others.

The success of a coalition depends upon the charisma of its leadership. Atal Bihari Vajpayee performed this role incredibly well for the NDA alliance whilst Man Mohan Singh emulated it for the UPA after Sonia Gandhi spurned the offer of the prime minister's post when the UPA had obtained a majority under her leadership. Prime Minister Deuba by virtue of becoming the Prime Minister for the fifth time is expected to steer the coalition across troubled waters in the days to come in Nepal in view of his towering personality and experience.

The coalition partners have to tone down their political standings for the health of the coalition. The BJP accordingly had to drop its demand for the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya during the 2004 coalition, which however was included in the 2019 minimum programme.

Consequently, the temple of Ram is under construction in Ayodhya at the moment.

There are several types of coalitions such as communal, secular, positive, negative, express and tacit. The RPP-NC coalition of the year 1995, the RPP-United Marxist Leninist coalition of the year 1997, the RPP- NC coalition of the year 1997, the NC- UML-Sadbhabana Party coalition of the year 1998, the UML-RPP-Madhesi Janadhikar Forum coalition of the year 2015, the UML-Maoist Central coalition of the year 2015, the MC-NC coalition of the year 2016 and NC-MC-Janata Samajbadi Party-CPN-United Socialist coalition of the year 2021 were all of a positive type, which aimed to pull down the existing government for providing an alternative one.

The present coalition has been formed by toppling the K P Oli government.

The former prime minister unfortunately embarked on an unconstitutional spree by dissolving the Parliament not on one but on two occasions despite the first dissolution declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, which warranted for the removal of his government from power.

A coalition may appear as a bed of roses due to the union of multiple numbers of parties, but some thorns nevertheless continue to haunt it, leading to its disintegration.

The signing of the Indo-US Nuclear Civil Agreement led to the ouster of the Left Front from the UPA coalition in the year 2008, which led the government to nearly lose its majority in the Parliament.

Thanks to the double-headed BJP that 10of its parliamentarians crossed the floor to support the government despite the party voting against the signing of the Treaty with the United States.

The MCC issue in Nepal is also turning to threaten the continuity of the present coalition. Whilst the Nepali Congress has been insisting for its immediate approval from the Parliament, the other partners of the coalition hold differing views. Now the agreement is going to be tabled in the Parliament following the decision of the all-party meeting held last weekend, but the MC and the UML-United Socialist still maintain that it should be passed only after changing the clauses that are suicidal to the country.

Even if it survives the MCC agreement, the coalition does not look like it will last long because the democratic Nepali Congress cannot tie its bogey for too long with the communist parties. So, the present coalition is at best a marriage of convenience, which is not likely to continue beyond the forthcoming elections primarily for three reasons.

Firstly, the coalition has not been able to present even an average performance due to all the three organs of the state – the Legislative, the Judiciary and Executive failing one after another, especially the first two. Secondly, the continuation of the coalition is tarnishing the image of the NC, which was dazzlingly bright in the immediate aftermath of the failure of the communist parties to honour the near to two-thirds majority awarded on a silver platter due to the disintegration of the CPN. This is because the Nepali Congress has to eventually take the blame for this fiasco due its leadership role.

Thirdly, opposition in the NC to the continuation of the coalition is mounting day by day.

So, the talk of extra longevity of the coalition can be no more than mere day dreaming under the present circumstances.

A version of this article appears in the print on January 27, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.