From agreements to architecture: Before the PM's India visit
Indian investors are not deterred by Nepal's geography or its people; they are deterred by regulatory unpredictability and the friction of doing business. That is fixable
Published: 12:19 pm Apr 17, 2026
When Prime Minister Balen Shah visits New Delhi, the temptation – as always –will be to celebrate the relationship. Joint statements will be drafted, agreements signed, and communiqués issued. History, however, counsels caution. The 7th Joint Commission Meeting produced a landmark 10,000 MW power trade agreement. The 1991 Trade and Transit Treaty created a foundational framework. BIPPA was signed with great expectation. Yet Nepal's trade deficit with India remains among the largest in South Asia, two international airports sit underutilised, and cross-border transit costs continue to quietly bleed Nepali businesses. The gap between declaration and delivery has never been wider. This visit must be different. Not because of goodwill – that exists on both sides – but because Nepal must arrive in New Delhi with a clear, structured, and reciprocal position: one focussed not on dependency management, but on co-designing a shared economic system built on genuine interdependence. Nepal's trade linkage with India, currently around 70% of total foreign trade, is often framed as vulnerability. It need not be. Dependency becomes a liability only when it is passive and asymmetric. When structured through value chains, energy trade, and two-way investment flows, it transforms into interdependence, where both economies have a real stake in each other's growth. The bottlenecks are well known: non-tariff barriers that cost more than tariffs ever did; port dwell times at Kolkata and Visakhapatnam inflated by documentation repetition and poor inter-agency coordination; cross-border transmission constraints that prevent completed hydropower projects from evacuating power; and a Trade and Transit Treaty designed for a paper-based economy now straining to serve digital commerce. India's guidelines restricting power purchases from projects with Chinese financing have added a new layer of uncertainty for Nepal's independent power producers, not because most projects are directly affected, but because the perception of conditional market access raises risk premiums and complicates financing structures. The recent 15-day extension in an NEA power trading tender, triggered by the exclusion of an Indian bidder, is a small but telling signal: when energy trade rules are ambiguous, even minor procedural questions destabilise market confidence. Nepal should not arrive as a supplicant requesting concessions. It should arrive as a strategic partner proposing architecture. Five concrete mechanisms deserve prioritisation. First, a Joint Working Group on Operational Connectivity – not another review committee, but a time-bound body with private sector representation from both countries, mandated to resolve specific bottlenecks at Birgunj, Bhairahawa, and Kakarbhitta within defined deadlines. Operational connectivity, not infrastructure announcements, is what moves goods and creates jobs. Second, a Pilot Corridor with Guaranteed Clearance Time – select one high-volume trade corridor and commit to a measurable standard: cargo cleared within 24 hours, digitally processed, with accountability benchmarks. This single intervention would demonstrate that the bilateral relationship can deliver outcomes, not just intentions. Third, a Framework on Mutual Recognition of Standards – Nepal's export competitiveness is being eroded not by tariffs but by duplicated testing, certification costs, and compliance burdens. Mutual recognition of laboratories, sanitary and phytosanitary certificates, and origin documentation would reduce transaction costs structurally, enabling Nepali agro-products and manufactured goods to compete on merit. Fourth, a Joint Risk Management Mechanism at the Border – smuggling across an open border cannot be addressed by enforcement alone when duty differentials make informality rational. Chambers from both countries, working with customs authorities, must harmonise tariff bands on high-volume goods and create formal trade channels that are genuinely faster and cheaper than informal ones. Making compliance the path of least resistance is the only sustainable solution. Fifth, a Climate-Resilient Logistics Cooperation Platform – Nepal's mountain geography makes its supply chains among the most climate-vulnerable in the region. India, investing heavily in resilient infrastructure, has both the technical capacity and the strategic interest to co-develop logistics corridors that are designed for climate shocks. This is not aid; it is enlightened self-interest, given India's own exposure to Himalayan climate risk. The 1991 Treaty needs more than amendments – it needs a philosophical update. In the age of e-commerce and digital services, paperless trade provisions, electronic data interchange, and cross-border data-sharing protocols are not aspirational additions; they are foundational requirements. Nepal's young, skilled workforce and cost advantages make IT and digital services a genuine emerging pillar of bilateral cooperation, one that neither government has yet mobilised seriously. On investment, the question is not whether BIPPA or its successor is needed – it is. Bilateral investment protection frameworks are globally accepted tools for building investor confidence. The question is whether Nepal can present a modernised framework with transparent safeguards, fast dispute resolution, and political will to implement it. Indian investors are not deterred by Nepal's geography or its people; they are deterred by regulatory unpredictability and the friction of doing business. That is fixable. Similarly, Nepal's two new international airports at Bhairahawa and Pokhara represent stranded assets at present. A transparent PPP framework inviting Indian private sector participation in operations – not ownership of sovereignty, but management of efficiency – could convert political complexity into commercial alignment, where investors become natural advocates for route facilitation. Nepal must not measure the success of this visit by the length of the joint statement. It must measure it by whether the five mechanisms above are agreed, time-bound, and assigned institutional ownership. The private sector on both sides is ready. What is needed now is not more formality, but the architecture of execution – a shared economic system where Nepal and India grow not in parallel, but together.
Sharma is General Secretary, Nepal-India Chamber of Commerce and Industry