KATHMANDU, APRIL 27 Nepal has unveiled an ambitious energy consumption growth and export strategy targeting a tenfold increase in per capita electricity consumption and the development of 28,500 megawatts of installed capacity by 2035, as the government moves to transform its hydropower surplus from a seasonal headache into a major revenue stream. The Energy Consumption Growth and Export Strategy, 2083, covering the fiscal period 2082/83 to 2092/93 and issued by the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, sets out a ten-year roadmap to position Nepal as a competitive clean energy hub in the region. The document was cleared by the Cabinet on Chaitra 13, 2082, which had directed the ministry to prepare an energy export strategy within one month and establish mechanisms to sell peak-hour electricity at premium rates. The numbers The strategy targets per capita electricity consumption of 1,500 units by 2035, up from the current figure of approximately 450 units, while developing total installed capacity of 28,500 MW, of which roughly 13,500 MW would serve domestic demand and 15,000 MW would be earmarked for export. Nepal currently has around 4,086 MW of grid-connected capacity, with electricity access now reaching approximately 98 percent of the population. The country has a long-term power trade agreement with India to export 10,000 MW over ten years, and currently exports and imports up to approximately 1,200 MW to and from India and Bangladesh. The problem it is solving Despite significant capacity additions over the past decade, Nepal continues to face a structural mismatch: excess power goes to waste during the monsoon season when domestic demand cannot absorb it, while the country imports electricity during winter months when river flows, and therefore generation, drop. The strategy aims to resolve this imbalance by developing reservoir-based and storage projects that can supply firm, dispatchable power year-round, selling surplus electricity to neighbouring markets at peak-demand rates.

Six strategic pillars The strategy is built around six core areas. The first focuses on expanding generation and transmission capacity, with targets to fast-track large reservoir and storage projects and attract domestic and foreign private investment. The second addresses reliability of domestic supply, including modernisation of the distribution network and accelerated completion of transmission infrastructure under construction. The third pillar targets demand growth across households, transport, industry, and agriculture - with concrete measures including phasing out LPG subsidies in favour of electric cooking, expanding EV charging infrastructure nationwide, introducing electric buses and trolleybuses in major cities, replacing coal boilers with electric alternatives, and deploying dedicated agricultural feeders for irrigation. Mandatory energy audits for large consumers and special electricity tariffs for energy-intensive industries such as data centres, fertiliser plants, and modern brick kilns are also proposed. Cross-border transmission infrastructure forms the fourth pillar, with multiple 400 kV lines to India and a future 400/220 kV link to China via Chilime-Kerung under the long-term plan. Grid management modernisation, including advanced load forecasting and dispatch systems, rounds out the infrastructure agenda. The fifth pillar covers electricity market management - prioritising reservoir-based projects for firm power purchase agreements, aligning operations with peak demand windows in India's Day Ahead and Real Time markets, and concentrating exports in high-price periods. The sixth addresses legal and institutional reform, including a new Electricity Policy, consolidation of sector laws, private sector participation in electricity trading, and restructuring of the Nepal Electricity Authority.

Key projects in the pipeline The strategy's action plan identifies a series of projects slated for completion within the decade. Near-term completions include the 40 MW Rahuganga and 140 MW Tanahun hydropower projects by 2083/84, and the 210 MW Chainpur-Seti and 99 MW Tamakoshi-5 projects by 2087. Larger storage projects, the 1,200 MW Budhi Gandaki, 670 MW Dun Koshi, 1,061 MW Upper Arun, and 828 MW Upper Ganga, are targeted for completion by 2091. Over 1,000 MW of solar PV is also planned by 2085, alongside approximately 14,000 MW from independent power producers. On transmission, the Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur-Sitamadhi cross-border line and the Butwal-Gorakhpur link are scheduled for completion by 2083/84, with the Inruwa-Purniya cross-border line and Lamki-Bareilly link targeted by 2089/90. Expected outcomes The government expects the strategy to meaningfully reduce Nepal's trade deficit, currently weighed down by petroleum imports, while increasing the energy sector's contribution to national revenue. A shift toward net zero carbon emissions by 2045, reduced environmental pollution, and progress on sustainable development goals are cited as additional expected outcomes. Risk factors identified in the document include climate-related hazards such as glacial lake outburst floods, financial and foreign exchange volatility, supply chain disruptions for construction materials, cybersecurity threats from smart grid adoption, land acquisition delays, and coordination gaps between government ministries.