Geneva, October 17:

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned for months that the aggressive H5N1 influenza virus that causes bird flu could mutate and be passed from human to human.

If that were to happen, a pandemic could be triggered putting the lives of millions of people at risk. For now, there is no cure - well, almost no cure.

Swiss pharmaceutical house Roche sells a product that the company nearly discontinued in the past, but which now helps to enrich its shareholders - Oseltamivir Phosphate, better known as Tamiflu. However, Swiss doctors are now warning that has seen the demand for the Tamiflu in Switzerland and around the world rise dramatically. According to the Swiss papers NZZ am Sonntag and Le Matin, Swiss doctors and pharmacists would distribute flyers from Monday, warning against the prophylactic use of Tamiflu. The flier will also point out that the risk of infection by bird flu, even for travellers, is “next to zero”, and that hording a “personal supply is completely useless”.

A flu shot to be made available in the near future would offer lasting protection against the disease. It would also be the recommended treatment for people who have direct and intensive contact with poultry, they say. Food with cooked poultry is completely safe, the doctors add. Despite doctors’ concerns, the drug has become a big seller, as it is thought to be the only medication that works against the dangerous H5N1 virus.

Observers of drug store sales report that nine times as many packets of Tamiflu were sold from January to September this year than during the same time last year. Compared to the average month, the sales in August and September had even been 25 times higher, they said.

Roche did not confirm these findings, but a spokesman said revenues from the drug in the first half of the year were around $451 million, an increase of 357 per cent compared to the same period in 2004.

In Switzerland, health authorities have built up a stock of two million boxes of Tamiflu. The US has ordered 2.3 million packages from Roche, and further purchases are planned.

The largest purchasers have been Britain (14.6 million packs), France (13 million) and Canada (5.4 million).

On Saturday, Roche donated 20,000 packets of Tamiflu to Turkey, for people working in close contact with the bird flu virus, the NZZ am Sonntag reported. Roche also delivered around two million packets of Tamiflu to the WHO as emergency supply.