London, September 5:

Interest in China among British ministers, officials and business people has expanded over the last year, driven not by the centuries-old fascination with a country that is culturally so different but by its reputation as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. The prime minister’s office says Tony Blair, who flew to Beijing yesterday, is going to ‘look and learn’. He will have two days of talks in Beijing and then fly to India. But it is China rather than India that has created the excitement, and there is the prospect that the 21st century will be dominated by this new economic giant.

“The next couple of months are going to see quite a concentration of British firepower on China, our chance to be on stage and be number one,” says Lord Powell, a former Downing Street foreign affairs adviser, who is joint leader of a 40-strong UK business delegation accompanying the prime minister, “It has suddenly become a really major factor. China has sprinted to the front of the pack.”

He added, “It is an entirely different ballgame, like the US in the 19th century, a world power emerging and finding room on the world stage.” In addition to the trip by the prime minister and one by the chancellor, Gordon Brown, in February, there have been 14 British ministerial visits over the last 12 months, with almost every department represented. About 100 trade missions are planned from Britain for next year, a 25 per cent increase on this year. British exports to China last year totalled 2,378 million Pounds Sterling while Chinese exports to Britain totalled 10,628 million Pounds Sterling.

Over the long term, Britain could benefit from an influx of Chinese students. There are about 60,000 studying in the UK this year, with the numbers up because of stricter US visa requirements.

Yiyi Lu, an Asian specialist at Chatham House, the London-based international affairs thinktank, agreed with Lord Powell that there was much more interest in China but cautioned that there was no guarantee this would be the Chinese century. “There are two views. One that it is definitely rising and will be the most powerful country in the world. And you have the other view that there are so many problems, with the possibility of the Chinese Communist party losing control and there being instability. It could be a great power or it could end in doom.”

The view in the US is markedly different from that in Britain. Washington tends to be much more suspicious and critical of China, viewing its build-up in the Pacific as a potential threat, and anxious about the impact of cheap Chinese goods on US firms and jobs. And there are lots of pressure groups in the UK angry that talk of trade is squeezing concerns such as calls for Tibetan freedom and maintaining the arms embargo on China. But the shift inside the British government is clear, reflected in the frequent references to Asia’s transformation in speeches by Blair and Brown.

The chancellor devoted much of this year’s Mansion House speech to the City of London to the subject. “It is globalisation that is our greatest future challenge: world trade doubling every decade, China’s trade doubling every three years, world trade now rising nearly twice as fast as world output,” he said. “Blair has worked very hard on his personal relations,” says Lord Powell, who was Margaret Thatcher’s foreign affairs adviser and has watched relations with China evolve over 20 years. “The chancellor woke up to China this year — it took time, but he did — and I think his visit was very helpful. He has realised quite how significant China is becoming. Even three years ago what went on in the Chinese economy didn’t really affect the world economy. That is the real difference now.’’ Sir Digby Jones, the CBI’s director general, who is accompanying Blair, acknowledged “the competitive threat posed to the developed world by the soaring growth of industries in China and India”. But he said that the UK was ready to accept the challenge.

The CBI admitted that it would be hard to escape the impact of the collapse of MG Rover or the current row over China’s textile exports to Europe.

India, UK plan

NEW DELHI:

British Premier Tony Blair arrives here on Tuesday evening with a large business team to attend the India-EU Summit and pusheconomic and strategic ties between India and its largest trading par ner. The opening session of the India-EU Summit on Wednesday will be addressed by I dia’s commerce minister Kamal Nath and European trade commi ssioner Peter Mandelson, while the two premiers will participate at the closing plenary. — HNS