GDP growth rate to rise by 3.33 per cent

Himalayan News Service

Kathmandu, January 25:

The rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fiscal year 2003-04 is to increase by 3.33 per cent as per the revised estimate of Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) released today.

Releasing the estimated figures on GDP and other sectors, Tongwa Bastola, director general of CBS said, “CBS has prepared the revised estimates related to national accounts, despite four months being left for the conclusion of fiscal year 2003-04.” He said that as per available data, revised estimates are given for 2003-04 and final estimates have been given for fiscal year 2002-03.

The GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2002-03 registered at 2.87 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 2.70 per cent, said Bastola while speaking at a discussion held by CBS today.

Dr Rudra Suwal, chief of National Accounts Department (NAD) at CBS commented that the GDP growth rate is not satisfactory. He said that GDP figures over the past ten years have shown ‘fluctuations’. “The GDP scenario is showing a downward trend in the recent past,” said Suwal. The growth in agriculture and forest sector will be at around 3.86 per cent in 2003-04 as per the revised estimates. However, the production of paddy, fish, potato and meat has been recorded as normal.

The growth in industrial sector in the fiscal year 2003-04 is to stand at 1.73 per cent as per the revised estimates as there is a decline in areas like readymade garments, pashmina, vegetable ghee, plastic, sugar, mustard oil, among others, according to CBS report. Similarly, in the area of electricity and water, the growth rate is to be only 2.29 per cent. Of the total available resources in the country, 66.46 per cent is estimated to be used for consumption, 20.75 for investment, 12.79 per cent for export expenditure. According to CBS, workers’ remittance in the review period has gone down to Rs 14,888.9 million in the fiscal year 2004-05 while it was Rs 17,996 million in 2003-04.

In fiscal year 2003-04, inflation will rise by 4.89 per cent as per the revised estimates.

Inflation to be felt by different sectors will be: 4.88 per cent in industry, 8.60 per cent in construction, 5.83 per cent in hotel and restaurants, 8.35 per cent in transport and communications and 5.46 in finance and real state.

As a whole, the price increment will be less in agriculture sector compared to non-agriculture sector as per the revised survey and estimates. In the agriculture sector, the price rise will be 3.17 per cent while in non-agriculture sector, it will be six per cent.