Threat to bond rally

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI: A rally in India’s bond market this month could prove short-lived as investors brace for as much as $157 billion in sovereign debt sales over the next year, including from states financing a big bailout of electricity utilities, analysts warn. The amount of supply expected will be well above the $130 billion raised this fiscal year ending on March 31, and could push yields higher as investors demand higher interest rates to finance the supply starting next month. Although the government pledged in February to keep its fiscal deficit at 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product for 2016-17, that does not include states’ rising borrowing needs. Nor does it include costs of PM Narendra Modi’s plan to push regional governments into assuming INR 4.3 trillion in debt owed by their utilities. Most of that debt will be taken over by banks, and hence kept out of the markets, but so-called UDAY scheme to revive India’s loss-making power distribution companies still involves around INR one trillion in additional borrowing by states.