Associated Press

Los Angeles:

The Associated Press’ crack Grammy team gives their insider analysis on who’s going to win on Grammy night February 13 — but hey, we wouldn’t bet the house on these predictions.

Record of the Year: “Let’s Get It Started,” The Black Eyed Peas; “Here We Go Again,” Ray Charles and Norah Jones; “American Idiot,” Green Day; “Heaven,” Los Lonely Boys; “Yeah!” Usher featuring Lil Jon and Ludacris.

• Let’s get the losers out of the way, first, shall we? The Black Eyed Peas are nominated a second year in a row for a catchy song, and again they will lose — besides, how can you give a Grammy to a song originally titled “Let’s Get Retarded” anyway? And even though Charles has had a banner (posthumous) year, “Here We Go Again” is about as below-the-radar as you can get. And yes, “Yeah!” was the most popular, but the Grammys don’t seem to be keen on picking dance tracks as the year’s most memorable — even if they are. So that leaves “American Idiot,” and “Heaven,” and the Los Lonely Boys’ ballad was the most ubiquitous of the two — so they’ll get it.

Album of the Year: “Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles and Various Artists; “American Idiot,” Green Day; “The Diary of Alicia Keys,” Alicia Keys; “Confessions,” Usher; “The College Dropout,” Kanye West.

• Probably everybody except the ever confident West is picking Charles in this category. I’ll be contrarian. Charles WAS a genius, just not on “Genius Loves Company.” It was a mediocre end to a stellar career. Be honest: would this disc even catch a whiff of the Grammys if he hadn’t died? He’s a legend, deservedly so, but decades removed from his peak. Meanwhile, “American Idiot” is the peak of Green Day’s career and a commercial blockbuster to boot. The only rock nominee will sneak through.

Song of the Year: “Daughters,” John Mayer (John Mayer); “If I Ain’t Got You,” Alicia Keys (Alicia Keys); “Jesus Walks,” C Smith and Kanye West (Kanye West); “Live Like You Were Dying,” Tim Nichols and Craig Wiseman (Tim McGraw); “The Reason,” Daniel Estrin and Douglas Robb (Hoobastank).

• “Jesus Walks” was the most original, breathtaking record of the year, but has any rapper ever really won this category? So my bet’s on the luscious, throwback groove provided by Keys, the second stellar song in this otherwise sub-par list. “If I Ain’t Got You” is a great song.

New Artist: Los Lonely Boys; Maroon 5; Joss Stone; Kanye West; Gretchen Wilson.

• Mediocre 5? Forget it. Gretchen Wilson’s probably the favorite here. It would be worth it to see her win just to be invited to the party. But I’m putting my money on West; he seems the best bet to be around longest.

Pop Vocal Album: “Genius Loves Company,” Ray Charles and Various Artists; “Feels Like Home,” Norah Jones; “Afterglow,” Sarah McLachlan; “Mind, Body and Soul,” Joss Stone; “Brian Wilson Presents Smile,” Brian Wilson.

• A toughie here — honour the dead legend who scored a major comeback or honour the living legend who did the same? Though Wilson might be a sentimental favorite for finally delivering his long awaited “Smile” album after decades of depression and drugs, I doubt he’ll be able to overcome the tidal wave of sentimentality over Charles’ last album.

Alternative Music Album: “Medulla,” Bjork; “Franz Ferdinand,” Franz Ferdinand; “Uh Huh Her,” PJ Harvey; “Good News for People Who Love Bad News,” Modest Mouse; “A Ghost Is Born,” Wilco.

• Franz Ferdinand seems to be the favourite here. But I’m a critic, so I have to pick Wilco, right? It’s the critics’ favourite band. So I will.

Contemporary R&B Album: “Afrodisiac,” Brandy; “Damita Jo,” Janet Jackson; “It’s About Time,” Christina Milian; “Confessions,” Usher; “Hurt No More,” Mario Winans.

• Maybe if Janet wins this, Justin Timberlake will help her accept the award. Oh, stop it. She doesn’t have a chance, anyway. Usher pretty much was contemporary R&B this year.

Rap Solo Performance: “On Fire,” Lloyd Banks; “Just Lose It,” Eminem; “99 Problems,” Jay-Z; “Overnight Celebrity,” Twista; “Through the Wire,” Kanye West.

• I’m going to go with the non-retiring man, Jay-Z.

Country Album: “Van Lear Rose,” Loretta Lynn; “Live Like You Were Dying,” Tim McGraw; “Tambourine,” Tift Merritt; “Be Here,” Keith Urban; “Here for the Party,” Gretchen Wilson.

• As big a year as Wilson had, I still think voters will be more inclined to vote for Lynn’s “Van Lear Rose” — she not only has that whole “country legend” thing going for her, it’s really the absolutely hippest album of the bunch, thanks to production work from the White Stripes’ Mr Jack White himself. My bet’s on Ms Lynn.