KATHMANDU, MAY 23
Most parts of Nepal are likely to receive above-average rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season, which spans from June 1 to September 30 (Jestha 18 to Ashwin 14), according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM). In its latest seasonal outlook published on Wednesday, the department also projects warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country.
Wetter season ahead
The forecast indicates a 55 to 65 percent probability of above-normal rainfall in the eastern Karnali, northern Lumbini, and most of Gandaki Province. Similarly, the southern Sudurpaschim, western Lumbini, northeastern Gandaki, and northern parts of Bagmati and Koshi Provinces face a 45 to 55 percent likelihood of heavier monsoon rains.
Regions such as the eastern and southern Madhesh Province and other parts of the country are expected to see a 35 to 45 percent chance of receiving above-average rainfall.
Warmer temperatures across Nepal
In addition to higher rainfall, both maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above average throughout the country.
There is a 55 to 65 percent probability of higher-than-normal daytime temperatures in the northwestern Sudurpaschim, northern Karnali and Lumbini, western Gandaki, western Madhesh, and central Bagmati regions, the Department of Hydrology and metereology forecast stated. For nighttime temperatures, most parts of Karnali and Bagmati, central Lumbini, western Madhesh, and the Terai belt of Koshi Province are also likely to experience higher-than-average minimum temperatures.
Neutral ocean conditions may support normal monsoon behavior
The DHM's forecast draws from global and regional climate models, assessments from the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), and current trends in global climate phenomena. Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are in neutral phases, and are expected to remain so during the monsoon season, which could contribute to typical monsoon behavior.
"While current oceanic and atmospheric indicators suggest neutral conditions, monsoon outcomes can still vary significantly due to complex climate interactions," the department stated.
Last year's forecast validated
The department also reviewed last year's (2081 BS) monsoon performance, noting that the forecast of above-average rainfall proved accurate in most regions. Likewise, predictions of higher temperatures were reflected in actual recorded data.
The DHM has advised the public and relevant authorities to remain prepared for potential weather-related challenges, especially in flood- and landslide-prone areas during the peak monsoon period.
Recent weather conditions
In recent days, most parts of the country have experienced partly to generally cloudy skies accompanied by brief rain and thundershowers. Several areas across all provinces have seen light to moderate rainfall, often accompanied by thunder and lightning.
According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the current weather pattern is being influenced by a western disturbance, local wind systems, and the partial effect of moisture-laden air from both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
