KATHMANDU: The fluctuating weather system over the Bay of Bengal and northern India has pushed this year’s monsoon further back, against the early forecast of weathermen.

The Meteorological Forecasting Division under Department of Hydrology and Meteorology today predicted that stationary monsoon-bearing clouds over the Bay of Bengal and Sikkim, near the Nepal-India border, would take three or four day to come to eastern Nepal.

Monsoon normally starts from June 10. It means that it has been delayed this year. “According to forecasts, the monsoon-bearing cloud will continue to remain inactive for the next few days before heralding the clear message of rainy season”, said Rajendra Prasad Shrestha, senior meteorologist at the MFD.

Pointing finger at satellite images, he further added that the westerly wind had weakened to let the moist cloud take their course towards Nepal.

Even after the monsoon-bearing cloud manages to enter the country from the east, it could take two to three days to reach the Capital and approximately one week to spread throughout the country. The country has not received adequate rainfall for the last few days, leading to rise in mercury.

“Traces and temporary rainfall may not be a premonition of monsoon. You should experience torrential rain for at least two or three days to enter into the rainy season.

It is normal for the monsoon to come forward or delay by four or five days. But this time we will really have a delayed monsoon,” said Shrestha.

Earlier, ScienceDaily journal on March 2 had predicted that the South Asian summer monsoon — critical to agriculture in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan — could be weakened and delayed due to the impact of global warming. “Climate change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.

Less moisture over the land in combination with the ambient dry summer air would lead to less moisture in the clouds and reduced rainfall,” researchers at Purdue University Research Group wrote in the journal.