• CONSTITUENCY WATCH
KATHMANDU, FEBRUARY 13
Following the Tikapur incident, Kailali Constituency-1 became a stronghold for Resham Chaudhary in the House of Representatives elections.
Chaudhary, who was convicted by the court as the kingpin of the Tikapur incident and served time, has been advocating for the Tharu community in the Tharu-dominated region.
Resham himself was elected from the constituency in the 2015 parliamentary election despite being a fugitive from justice. He was nominated at the time by the Rastriya Janata Party-Nepal (RJP-N).
However, he surrendered to the court and was imprisoned soon after being elected. While in prison, unable to serve as an MP, he founded the Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP) under the chairmanship of his wife, Ranjita Shrestha.
Ranjita, Resham's wife, was elected from Kailali-1 in the 2022 parliamentary election. Ranjita won easily, thanks to Resham's influence.
Ranjita was the only woman elected directly from Sudurpaschim Province's 16 House of Representatives constituencies to the federal parliament at the time. When Pushpa Kamal Dahal was prime minister, she was appointed minister of land management, cooperatives and poverty alleviation.
However, due to a schism between the husband and wife, his party has now split. Resham left the NUP and founded NUP-Nepal.
Resham Chaudhary wanted to run in that constituency, but the Election Commission rejected his candidature.
Neither the NUP nor the NUP-Nepal has candidates running in that region in the March 5 polls. The choice that the voters in that area will make this time is therefore of great interest.
The Nepali Communist Party (NCP) and the NUP, led by Ranjita Shrestha, have now combined.
It is anticipated that the NCP, which was created by combining 22 communist parties and elements, such as the NUP, Bhim Rawal's group, the CPN (Maoist) and the CPN (Unified Socialist), will win this election.
Ramlal Dagoura Tharu is the candidate put forward by the NCP in this constituency. Dagoura was elected Mayor of the Tikapur Municipality in 2022. He resigned as mayor to run for the parliament.
However, given his sphere of influence, it is estimated that Resham Chaudhary's choices regarding whom to support and whom not to support could have an impact on the outcome of the election.
This time, Komal Gyawali, the former NUP's founding central treasurer, is running for Kailali-1 as a candidate for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). Pradeep Kumar Chaudhary, another party leader, is now running as a candidate for the Ujyaala Nepal Party, which is led by Kulman Ghising.
This constituency has 19 candidates running for election. This time, the Nepali Congress has given a ticket to Janakraj Chaudhary rather than former minister Ramjanam Chaudhary, who was defeated in 2022.
Dwarika Prasad Neupane of the CPN-UML is running for office. He is betting that the organisation's strength will tip the scales in his favour.
Similarly, Janakraj Shah of the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party, Lokendra Kunwar of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Bhagatram Dagoura Tharu of the Janamat Party and Rupa Kumari Chaudhary of the Aam Janata Party are in the running.
This constituency also includes independent candidates. Independent candidates such as Arun Thakulla, Tapendra Shah, Naresh Rawal, Faguram Chaudhary and Rajendra Bahadur Shahi are hoping to win the support of voters dissatisfied with the parties. Election history is different for Kailali-1. Rarely do voters in this area remember the candidate they chose more than once.
In the 1991 election, Ganga Bahadur Kunwar of the Nepali Congress emerged victorious from this seat. The CPN-UML's Himanchal Raj Bhattarai won the election from this seat in 1994.
Sushila Swar of the Nepali Congress was elected in 1999, while Rupa Sosi Chaudhary of the CPN (Maoist) was elected in the 2008 Constituent Assembly election. In the 2013 Constituent Assembly election, Janak Raj Chaudhary of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum was elected from this area.
Despite the fact that Resham Chaudhary was underground in 2017, voters chose him, and Ranjita Shrestha, Resham's wife, won the 2022 election. According to the 2022 proportional vote, the NUP was quite powerful in this area.
In proportional representation, the NUP received 27,406 votes at the time, followed by the Nepali Congress with 11,395, the CPN (Maoist) with 7,992, the CPNUML with 5,215 and the RPP with 4,103. Here, the RSP received 2,517 votes in proportional representation.
At this point, things have changed. NUP, with 27,000 votes, is divided. Although a large portion appears to be in favour of Ramlal Dagoura Tharu through the Nepali Communist Party, Resham Chaudhary's dissatisfaction, Komal Gyawali's entry into the RSP and Pradeep Chaudhary's candidature are certain to divide that vote. In such a situation, if old parties like the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML can protect the organisation's votes while also attracting dissatisfied voters, they may be able to turn the results in their favour.
On the other hand, the RSP's ability to attract the votes of urban and young voters will have an impact on the outcome following their wave due to the Balen factor and the Gen Z revolution last year. The RSP has already announced plans for a mass demonstration in Dhangadi, near Kailali, on February 18, ahead of the House of Representatives elections on March 5.