KATHMANDU, JUNE 7
The legacy of Upendra Yadav led Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal has been uprooted by his competitors, and C.K. Raut led Janamat Party Madhes today.
Madhes Province had been led solely by JSP-N Nepal since the country's transition to a federal structure. Following the 2017 election, Lal Babu Raut of the JSP-N was elected Chief Minister, and Saroj Kumar Yadav took over after 2022 election.
Despite numerous mergers and splits among Madhes-based parties over the last seven years, Yadav has remained on the governing side. Lal Babu Raut, the party's chief minister, is the only one among the seven to have served a full five-year term after 2017.
However, on May 5, following the split of the JSP-N and Upendra Yadav's withdrawal of support from the federal government, Saroj Kumar Yadav's government fell into minority.
As the CPN-UML, CPN-MC, and CPN (US) withdrew their support, CM Yadav tabled a motion of trust on Wednesday, in accordance with the constitution. However, Yadav failed to secure a majority, and he was relieved of his position.
Today, Janmat Party member Satish Singh was appointed as Madhes CM. Since the UML, CPN-MC, and CPN (US) agreed to support Janamat's government, the Janamat Party has succeeded the JSP-N, which had been in power in Madhes for over six years.
In the most recent election, Janamat won 13 seats in the Madhes Provincial Assembly, six directly and seven proportionally. This does not appear to be a large number in the 107-member Madhes Assembly.
However, based on the provincial assembly equation, Janamat's seats are substantial. Because UML, the largest party, has only 25 seats (including the speaker), Nepali Congress has 22 seats, JSP-Nepal has 19 seats (after the entry of three independent MPs), LSP-N has 9 seats, CPN-MC has 8 seats, CPN (US) has 7 seats, and Nagarik Unkukti, RPP, and Sanghiya Samajwadi Party each have one seat. As a result of this, the Janamat Party gains a significant stake in the government.
It received the most popular votes (proportionally) among Madhes-centric parties in the House of Representatives elections. Janamat received 3, 29,177 (16.86%) votes, while JSP-N received only 2, 98,774 (15.3%).
In the Madhes general election, the ruling alliance (NC, CPN-MC, LSP-N, and US) formed an alliance with the UML. However, the Janamat fought alone and became a national party.
However, Saroj Yadav from JSP-N was appointed the Chief Minister after the last election.
When Pushpa Kamal Dahal became Prime Minister in December, Yadav's major demand was Madhes CM as coalition partner.
The JSP-N and Janmaat reached an agreement on sharing the chief minister' s post for a half-term each. However, when Dahal changed his alliance with the UML and joined the NC, the agreement collapsed.
The JSP-N remained loyal to Dahal, preserved Madhes government. Even when Dahal returned to UML on March 4, JSP-N remained in the alliance. But this time, when the equation changed, Yadav's JSP-N split and lost the Madhes government.
On the contrary, the new alliance bolstered the Janamat Party and its chair, CK Raut. In a short period of parliamentary politics, Janamat succeeded in taking the leadership of Madhes.
Though the Madhes administration implemented a few good programs, experts claim it failed to lead the government on many fronts.
Senior journalist and political commentator Anant Anurag cautioned Yadav activities in Madhes and abuse of Madhesi sentiments.
"In the last seven years, the JSP-N government has destroyed the essence of federalism, failed to set an example of why federalism is necessary for the betterment of people's lives at the grassroots, and people are dissatisfied with government activities," he said.
"Previously, Lal Babu Raut led the government, and more recently, Saroj Yadav led the government but could not meet the people's federal aspirations. Moreover, Upendra Yadav has suffered several major setbacks and severe political blow and is finding it difficult to recover."
Upendra Yadav, who had led Madhes politics for more than a decade and a half, was defeated by CK Raut in the 2022 general election in Saptari 2. It was a crushing blow for the veteran leader to lose the race to a newcomer.
The JSP-Nepal's strength was further weakened when the Ashok Rai faction split the party on May 5 and formed the Janata Samajwadi Party. Upendra Yadav has challenged the split, and the case is currently sub judice.
Seven of the party's 12 Lower House members have joined the Rai-led party. The Madhes assembly members, however, did not join the new party because the party's formation process was immediately challenged in court.
According to experts, this is a major blow and setback for Yadav, who appeared to be invincible in Madhes politics and always led the government.
"We can't say Yadav has been defeated. He has received an unexpected blow and now needs to fight like a phoenix," said political analyst Chandra Kishor.
"At the same time, CK Raut's Janamat must seize the opportunity and deliver on their promises. This coalition will be contentious. It is not possible to say how long it will last."
