2025 State of the Cryosphere Report urges immediate emission cuts to avert catastrophic glacier and sea-level impacts
KATHMANDU, NOVEMBER 7
Global ice loss is expanding at a dangerous pace, threatening billions of people worldwide, but scientists say there is still a narrow window to prevent the worst impacts-if immediate and drastic emission reductions begin now.
According to the 2025 State of the Cryosphere Report, released Thursday by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI), even current climate commitments leading to over 2°C of warming could trigger irreversible losses in glaciers, ice sheets, and polar oceans.
The assessment, prepared by more than 50 leading cryosphere scientists, warns that ice stability thresholds may already have been crossed at just 1°C of global warming, and that many glaciers are vulnerable at even lower temperatures.
"Even current temperatures are too high to maintain the long-term stability of glaciers and ice sheets," said Dr. James Kirkham, Chief Scientist to the Ambition on Melting Ice group and an author of the report. "Preserving the Earth's cryosphere now means reaching 1.5°C by 2100 and lowering temperatures toward 1°C thereafter."
Tipping points nearing
The report finds that ice loss has accelerated sharply since the 2015 Paris Agreement, with melting from Greenland and Antarctica potentially slowing key ocean currents and threatening to disrupt global climate systems. Scientists warn that freshwater pouring off melting ice sheets, combined with warming seas, could bring "much colder temperatures" to northern Europe while devastating marine ecosystems.
Even at current warming levels of 1.2°C, several meters of sea-level rise are now expected over coming centuries, exceeding adaptation limits in many coastal regions. The report notes that glaciers in the Alps, Scandinavia, North America, and Iceland would lose at least half their ice at 1°C and nearly all at 2°C.
'High ambition' pathways still possible
Despite the grim outlook, new modelling by Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that the most ambitious climate pathways could still lower global temperatures below 1.5°C by 2100 and under 1°C next century, even after a temporary overshoot to 1.8°C-if aggressive emission cuts and land-based carbon removal are implemented immediately.
This approach could slow and eventually halt glacier retreat, sea-ice loss, and permafrost thaw, though parts of West Antarctica may already have passed thresholds for collapse.
"The best and worst part of these findings is that none of this damage is necessary," said Pam Pearson, ICCI Director. "We have all the tools to change. We just need to use them."
Polar oceans in peril
The report highlights rapid ocean acidification in Arctic and Southern Oceans, now reaching "non-survivable levels" for shelled marine life. It also confirms that permafrost has become a net carbon source, releasing more greenhouse gases than it absorbs during warmer months.
"Our polar oceans are undergoing massive disruptions that will last hundreds or thousands of years," noted Dr. Helen Findlay of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the UK. "Halting CO₂ emissions is the only way to stop this."
Urgent call at COP30
The findings were released as world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the Climate Leaders Action Summit alongside the UNFCCC COP30 conference. Scientists plan a demonstration at the site-ironically itself at risk of becoming beachfront if sea levels rise by 10 meters-to underscore the urgency of deep and sustained emission cuts.
The ICCI warned that failure to act now will lock in ice losses that are irreversible for centuries-or even millennia.
"Policymakers at COP30 must stop denying this physical reality and finally deliver the deep, rapid, and sustained emissions reductions needed to protect global security from accelerating ice losses," Dr. Kirkham said.
