KATHMANDU, JANUARY 9
The country's economy is in a very bad state and can collapse any time. It is thus advisable to follow the time-tested alternate of a coalition government
Nepali politics appears to be eventually drifting towards political instability after the reception of a fractured mandate in the recently held national election.
The constitution has been framed in such a manner that the majority of a single party is next to impossible. The only alternate is a government of coalition.
But the coalition led by the Nepali Congress also failed to obtain a majority by falling two seats short of the required number. The other disguised coalition led by the Unified Marxist- Leninist (UML), dubbed as an electorate adjustment, also suffered a similar fate.
The frontline parties, the NC and UML in particular, are themselves to be blamed for not taking the responsibility seriously.
The wins by the independent candidates in the Kathmandu Metropolitan City and a few others outside in the local elections in May had sent red signals about people's disenchantment.
The failure to read the writing on the wall led to the migration of the voters from these parties, significantly reducing the proportionate votes.
Now it has become apparent that a pre-poll coalition is not suitable for Nepal, and the only alternative is a post-poll coalition.
The pre-poll coalition compelled the voters to vote for a coalition partner exercising opposite ideology, and hence the vote transfer was not as desired. There are complaints that the NC voters did not vote for the Maoist Centre (MC) or the Unified Socialists (US) as did these parties for the NC. The mass-based nature of the NC in contrast to the cadre-based one of the MC and US has been held responsible for this state of affairs.
The NC-led coalition, though just a spark away from a majority, now lies in tatters with the political escapade of one of its partners, the MC to the UML camp after it was denied the prime ministerial berth amidst the claim by the NC on the basis of being the largest party in the Parliament.
A government has been formed, led by the MC, with the support of the UML and five other parties, including some independent parliamentarians following para 76 (2) of the constitution, making it like an octopus consisting of eight limbs. The constitution requires the confirmation of a majority in the Parliament within one month of the formation of such a coalition government.
The Prime Minister is running from pillar to post fearing a defeat while taking confidence from the Parliament because the eight-headed coalition is at best unreliable due to their differing as well as reciprocal ideologies. It has even turned to the NC for support, whom it has ditched by entering into the UML fold citing the need of national consensus in view of the divided mandate.
It held that it does not have any qualms about making such a request in view of the MC and NC sailing in the same boat till a week back. Ram Chandra Paudel, a senior leader of the NC, was the first to moot this idea of a national government after the NCled coalition came crashing to the ground. He had made a similar request after the crack appeared in the Nepal Communist Party made by merging the UML and MC at a time enveloped by the COVID pandemic.
A government of consensus has been practised in Nepal since the Licchavi times back in the early seventh century as exemplified by the regime of titular Shiva Dev and all powerful Amsu Verma. Though it came to an end with the emergence of Narendra Devon the political scene, it again staged a comeback in medieval times with the appearance of three rulers – Bhoj Dev, Rudra Dev and Laxmikam Dev.
This tradition also spilled over to the Rana regime when the ceremonial Shah king and the executive Rana prime minister reigned spontaneously.
History appears to be repeating itself with the talk of national consensus resonating in the Nepali political arena. Before jumping into the consensus fray, it is worthwhile to see how it fared in countries outside Nepal.
A search for political consensus was also made a decade back in Tunisia. After the Tunisian revolution, the political landscape headed towards unusual fragmentation. There were two camps diagonally opposed to each other – the Islamic Party, Enhada, and the secular party consisting of political figures from the old regime, the business elite, human rights groups, social activists and labor unions. The situation aggravated to such an extent that Enhada was held responsible for the assassination of the political leaders of the opposing camp. As a result, the economy suffered badly. Many of the political actors signed the Carthage Agreement in 2016, leading to the installation of the National Government.
Nine parties participated in the government, which led to the formation of a jumbo cabinet. It may be remembered that a gigantic cabinet was formed under Prime Minister Babu Ram Bhattarai, who admitted not knowing all the ministers of the cabinet.
Though it helped overcome the Tunisian political turmoil, it was found to be ineffective on matters such as economic improvement and passing of legislations.
Social and economic reforms were delayed more than political reforms by the consensus mechanism.
A similar effort is being made in strife-torn Ethiopia, but it remains to be seen about its efficacy.
Nepal has not yet reached the state of Tunisia.
Though the political leaders were engaged in vituperative dialogue, they have not indulged in the assassination of rival political leaders. What is common, however, is the economy, which is in a very bad state and can collapse any time as in Sri Lanka. The retired university employees have stopped receiving pension. The countryside is dotted by senior citizens with all the young ones working outside. It is thus advisable to follow the time-tested alternate of a coalition government or a government of the largest party supported by the second largest party, as practised in the early nineties, instead of experimenting with a rather unfamiliar government of consensus.
A version of this article appears in the print on January 10, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
