Key Takeaways:
- Congress-HNP bloc has 38 seats, 15 short of majority in 104-member assembly
- RPP (12) and NWPP (3) hold balance but have not pledged support
- UML whip issued against Baniya; UML-CPN alliance preparing new government
- Baniya could return under Article 168(3) if rivals fail to form majority
Bagmati Province Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniya is scheduled to face a confidence vote today, as his minority government struggles to secure the numbers needed to survive.
Baniya was pushed into a minority after ministers from the CPN-UML resigned and the party withdrew its support for his government. He had subsequently requested the provincial assembly to convene for a confidence vote.
The constitutional deadline for Baniya to secure a majority is September 4, 30 days after the withdrawal of support.
The 104-member Bagmati Provincial Assembly requires 53 votes for a majority. The Nepali Congress has 36 seats, while the two ministers' seats from the Hamro Nepali Party (HNP) bring the ruling side's strength to 38.
That leaves Baniya 15 votes short of the required majority.
Congress has been holding discussions with parties other than the CPN-UML and CPN in an effort to shore up support. The party has looked particularly to the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), which has 12 seats, and the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, which has three.
However, neither party has indicated a willingness to support the Congress-led government. RPP's position on joining the government depends on its central chairman Rajendra Lingden, while Nepal Workers and Peasants Party has so far remained outside the provincial government.
Lingden has said he would make a decision based on the province's needs and circumstances, but RPP lawmakers have not received any formal direction so far.
Meanwhile, the CPN-UML has issued a whip to its lawmakers to vote against Baniya, while the CPN is also holding discussions ahead of the vote.
With the NCP and UML having reached a political understanding to form a new provincial government, Baniya's chances of securing a majority appear uncertain.
Baniya, the sixth chief minister of Bagmati Province, was appointed to the post on August 5, 2025.
If the NCP-UML alliance fails to form a government, Baniya could potentially return as chief minister as the leader of the largest party under Article 168(3) of the Constitution. He would, however, still be required to seek a vote of confidence within 30 days.