THT Ground Zero
KATHMANDU, APRIL 24
The rise of Islamic terrorism linked to Pakistan casts a long shadow over the Hindu-Buddhist heartlands of South Asia-Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Myanmar.
These countries, each with their own delicate religious and ethnic balances, now face heightened risks as cross-border militancy threatens to spill over and destabilize their societies. Pakistan-based groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba have long targeted India, but their ideological influence and recruitment networks do not stop at the border. Nepal, for instance, sits at a crossroads: its open border with India and visa-free entry for Pakistanis create vulnerabilities that could be exploited by extremist elements.
As a Hindu-majority nation with a secular constitution, Nepal must manage increasing pressure from India to clamp down on possible infiltration, while also maintaining its diplomatic neutrality and relationships with both China and Pakistan.
Sri Lanka's experience with Islamic terrorism is all too recent and painful. The 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, orchestrated by an ISIS-affiliated group, killed over 250 people and shattered any illusions of immunity from global jihadist violence. The aftermath saw a surge in Buddhist-Muslim tensions, with hardline groups using the attacks to justify crackdowns and discrimination against the island's Muslim minority. Sri Lanka's strategic location has also made it a logistical hub for various groups in the past, and renewed instability in Pakistan could once again make it vulnerable to transnational terror networks.
Bhutan, though geographically isolated, is not immune to these risks. Its history of clearing Indian insurgent camps in the early 2000s demonstrates both its vulnerability and its resolve, but the possibility of militants seeking refuge or regrouping in its remote regions remains a concern, especially as tensions between India and Pakistan escalate. Meanwhile, Myanmar faces its own complex challenges. The Rohingya crisis, combined with the rise of Buddhist nationalist movements, has created fertile ground for both local insurgencies and the potential infiltration of global jihadist networks. Groups like ARSA, while primarily focused on ethnic grievances, could be drawn into broader extremist currents, further destabilizing the region.
Across these countries, the threat of radicalization is amplified by social media, which can reach disaffected youth offering a sense of purpose and belonging to those who feel marginalized. Economic consequences are also significant; countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on tourism, are particularly vulnerable to the shocks that follow major terror attacks. The dramatic drop in Sri Lankan tourist arrivals after the Easter bombings is a stark reminder of how quickly fear can undermine economic stability.
Complicating matters further is the involvement of major powers. China's Belt and Road investments in Nepal and Myanmar could become targets for militants, while India's calls for Israel-style counterterrorism operations raise the specter of wider regional conflict and unintended consequences for neighboring states. In this tense environment, these Hindu-Buddhist countries must walk a fine line: enhancing intelligence and security cooperation without inflaming sectarian tensions or undermining their own pluralistic traditions. The challenge is immense-balancing the imperative to protect their citizens and economies while resisting the pull of polarization and proxy conflict in an increasingly volatile South Asian neighborhood.
