The 15th National Convention of the Nepali Congress (NC) opened with a flying start amidst pomp and ceremony at Bhrikuti Mandap in the capital. The convention was inaugurated by NC President Gagan Thapa under the appealing slogan, "Respect for tradition and resolve for change: NC as a strong alternative for a prosperous Nepal." It was, however, conspicuous by the absence of Sher Bahadur Deuba, former prime minister and former president of the NC, despite his having been invited as the chief guest.

Other notable absentees included Shashanka Koirala, Prakash Man Singh, and Bimalendra Nidhi – the sons of NC icons B. P. Koirala, Ganesh Man Singh, and Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, respectively. The names of Purna Bahadur Khadka and Shekhar Koirala should also be added to the list: the former for being the petitioner seeking a review of the Supreme Court (SC) decision, despite expressing a desire to join the Gagan group, and the latter for maintaining equidistance from both groups in the interest of party unity.

K. P. Oli, former prime minister and president of the CPN-UML, an all-weather friend of Deuba, was also absent. So was Prime Minister Balendra Shah, who is known more for his absence than his presence at such programmes. The presence of other political leaders, including Rabi Lamichhane, president of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP); Prachanda, president of the Nepali Communist Party; and former prime minister Dr Baburam Bhattarai, nevertheless compensated to some extent for the absence of the aforementioned leaders.

The Deuba group has surprisingly begun preparations for a parallel 15th convention, claiming to be the authentic NC despite the Election Commission's recognition of the Gagan Thapa-led NC. The Commission's decision was subsequently upheld by the Supreme Court. Deuba's group suffered yet another setback when the court allowed the mainstream NC, led by Thapa, to proceed with the 15th National Convention while responding to a petition seeking to stop it.

The Deuba group, however, is hanging on to the slender thread of the Supreme Court's decision to review its earlier verdict. Using this as a pretext, the group is also using the four-star NC flag and the party's election symbol, the tree, which several political observers have described as illegal and even shameful.

The review of the Supreme Court decision is based on a provision in the relevant Act. It has, however, been interpreted by some as a political ploy by the RSP to sweep the forthcoming local and provincial elections by mobilising Chief Justice Manoj Sharma, who was appointed to the coveted post after superseding several senior justices. The RSP appears to regard the NC as its principal political threat, which could be significantly weakened by creating a division within the country's oldest political party.

The RSP's two unsuccessful attempts to arrest Deuba – first by mobilising Interpol and seeking the court's permission, and later by its sudden change of heart and muted response to his return to the country, despite a warm welcome from several of his supporters at the airport – obviously raise questions about the party's intentions. The sequence of events appears to suggest that there may be a political motive behind the RSP's actions.

The inaugural function was, however, dominated by political whispers over whether the current situation represented a party split or merely a factional departure from the NC. Many NC members subscribe to the latter view because a large majority of NC leaders and cadres appear to have aligned themselves with the Gagan group. This has been demonstrated by the defection of several leaders, including Meen Vishwakarma.

The Deuba group has been reduced to something resembling an inverted pyramid, dominated at the top by ageing leaders, with allegedly tainted leaders in the middle and a few young Turks at the bottom. Even some of these younger leaders could cross over to the other camp at any time, as many have already done.

Even if this is merely a factional exit, the question arises as to whether it will eventually lead to yet another reunion, as has happened twice in the NC's 81-year history. The NC was formed through the merger of two parties – the Nepali Rastriya Congress and the Nepal Praja Parishad – following a convention held in the cinema hall of Mahabir Shumsher in Chaurangi, Calcutta, in 1949.

The first major split in the NC occurred in 1953, when Matrika Prasad Koirala led a splinter group and formed a new party, the Rastriya Praja Party. It subsequently rejoined the Nepali Congress in 1956 after failing to establish a nationwide presence. The second major split occurred in 2002, when Deuba himself engineered a division and formed the Nepali Congress (Democratic). The Deuba group eventually rejoined the parent party after King Gyanendra dismissed Deuba as prime minister, declaring him incompetent.

People are now asking whether the NC will merge again, as it did in 1956 and 2002. The Deuba group is likely to become as feeble as Matrika's Rastriya Praja Party. Moreover, Deuba may once again come under pressure from the RSP, as happened earlier, after his departure for Singapore. In addition, just as Deuba merged his party with the Nepali Congress on the eve of the Constituent Assembly election, he may repeat the move when the local and provincial elections draw near.

In the end, Deuba may have to mend political fences with Gagan, who appears to be looming over the NC horizon like the sky itself. The Deuba group seems to be keeping all its eggs in one political basket by placing excessive hope in the Supreme Court's review decision. That decision could become irrelevant – or even be rendered ineffective – if the 15th National Convention is successfully concluded. The court could even order the Deuba group to merge with the mainstream Congress, just as it invalidated the 2018 merger that had produced the Nepal Communist Party following the merger of the UML and the Maoist Centre.