Students of the European Union have become accustomed to rating member states in a sort of political Champions League table. National standings vary as leaders come and go. The question is: who’s up, who’s down? It was a game the likes of Jacques Chirac loved to play. But in the lull after the storm over the EU’s reform treaty, Europe’s current Big Three — Gordon Brown, Germany’s Angela Merkel, and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy — are roughly level-pegging. No one leader enjoys a marked advantage in influence, ideas or political momentum. All have notable weaknesses.

On most key international issues, including security, climate change and economic liberalisation, members of this new European triumvirate find themselves in broad agreement. All three are pro-American.

The result of this unusual alignment, diplomats and analysts say, is a rare opportunity as the EU gropes for a way forward after years of constitutional and institutional wrangling. “This is a strong European moment, or at least it should be,” said a French official. “Globally speaking, the three are in agreement. It takes two to tango but perhaps you need all three to make a difference.” Brown has asserted Britain’s view of the EU’s direction. The UK government’s Global Europe paper, published this week ahead of December’s Lisbon summit, promotes issues close to Brown’s heart: freer markets, enlarged skill bases, energy and telecoms deregulation, poverty reduction and budget reform.

But Brown cannot set the agenda alone. “Brown’s opt-outs have reinforced Britain’s status as a half-player,” said the French official. “You can’t have it both ways.” Brown’s political courage is also questioned. “Most EU countries more or less subscribe to the British world view,” said Mark Leonard, of the European Council. “Brown has a great opportunity. But he is reluctant to say anything positive about the EU for fear of the reaction at home.”

Germany’s position is more nuanced. Eighteen months ago, Merkel was uncrowned queen of Europe. She replaced Tony Blair as George Bush’s key friend; the economy was reviving; and Germany was cruising towards the G8 and EU presidencies.

Now the chancellor looks less comfortable. Her grand coalition grows fractious, with the SPD rediscovering its socialist roots. Poland is not alone in criticising Germany’s gas pipeline pact with Russia. And Washington’s ardour may be cooling. Tensions over Afghanistan and perceived foot-dragging over Iranian sanctions are partly to blame.

At a time when clear direction was needed, she seemed reluctant to stick her neck out, said Leonard. “Germany is torn between its pro-European instincts and commercial interests.” The idea of Europe following Sarkozy, the most talented and flawed member of the triumvirate, looks far-fetched. One reason is his heavy domestic agenda, already running into trouble.

In contrast to Brown’s laundry list, France will ask the Lisbon summit to conjure a new vision for Europe by empanelling a group of “wisemen”. On past precedent, Merkel will take the middle way. The result will be fudge. But EU watchers say it need not be like that. If Merkel takes a risk, if Sarkozy calms down and if Brown screws up his nerve, Europe’s three musketeers could give the EU a fresh start. In reformed Europe’s premier league, all can be champions. — The Guardian