The inquiry into the Gaur massacre may be expected to come up with details, throwing light on every possible aspect and angle to the killings, including the cross-border use of guns and goons. But the tragedy has exposed the dangerously violent character, and further strengthened the widely held suspicion of the hidden agenda, of an organisation, the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF), which is ostensibly fighting discrimination. The Nepal Madhesi Students Forum has now announced its severance of ties with the MJF, accusing the latter of indulging in “unpolitical” and “pro-palace” activities and its chairman Upendra Yadav of “conspiring against” the constituent assembly (CA). Gaur has also laid bare the incompetence, to use a more charitable word, of the local administration. The Rautahat CDO has been recalled to the ministry, but given the seriousness of the charge, one wonders if it would have been better to have him suspended pending full investigation. Above all, the slaughter stresses the inability of the SPA government to deal effectively with the worsening law and order situation, particularly in reference to various armed outfits. Prime Minister Koirala recently said in Biratnagar, mainly referring to the MJF, that he was not in favour of applying force against the Madhesi movement. He emphasised a negotiated settlement of any problem. This position may have to be modified.

Indeed, a peaceful solution is the best. But this approach alone, coupled with the failure to detect motives, allowed the MJF a clout much greater than its real strength, as the government looked on while intimidation, violence, vandalism and arson continued. Such helplessness was also seen when the MJF, changing tactics when its most recent mass strike was failing amid solid resistance, including by trade unions and transport entrepreneurs, went on to force a closure of import and export of goods at several customs checkpoints and padlock government offices in several district headquarters in the Tarai. Now the Gaur slaughter is also being cited as another proof of why the CA elections cannot be held in mid-June on security grounds, something which would make those creating disturbances just for that purpose, happy and emboldened to hatch new designs.

The outrage should not, however, be allowed to derail the peace process, because the country would suffer more if this is to happen. The SPA and the Maoists should work hand-in-glove to build greater mutual trust and to face all odds stacked against the CA polls. In this, Koirala has the greatest of role in facilitating things. On security front, he should move fast and firmly to tackle violence. Arms should be recovered from all groups, including, of course, small groups formed by the erstwhile regime to counter the Maoists. On the other hand, the strategy of deliberate delay — for instance, in forming the interim government and perceived interest in postponing the CA polls — should end immediately. Everyone knows the situation will probably become particularly difficult if the CA polls are postponed.