The hype about Kyirong (China)-Kathmandu Railway has to be correlated with the Raxaul (India)-Kathmandu Railway's schedule
Collaboration on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of the agenda of the Prime Minister's fiveday visit to China scheduled from September 22 to 25. The fact remains, however, that after six years of signature, the mega-project is awaiting implementation and leaves one wondering how yet to start. Given the disparities that the two neighbours present, the challenges may look formidable, yet there are also similarities that give hope that the BRI can benefit both the countries.
As stated by scholar Anand Aditya, BRI is a transregional agenda where the superstates (China, Russia, India and USA) are in a deep process of stakebuilding. As an update of the historical Silk Road, which for centuries facilitated interaction among the Eurasian people from 2nd century BC tomid-15thcentury, the modern version symbolises China's collaboration with the international community for 'shared interest' and 'shared growth'.
If Nepal's location was of historical significance in the past, it remains geopolitically no less relevant to-day. Nepal lay en route from Lhasa to Kathmandu to Pataliputra between the Silk Road's 'Imperial Highway' in the Shanghai-Kabul-Persia belt in the north, and the Great Royal Road in the Bengal-Delhi-Taxila corridor in the south. Nepal can, therefore, benefit from the BRI to access the markets from East-/Central Asia to Europe, and serve as a land-bridge between China and India. In other words, BRI-Nepal programmes would ensure not only geostrategic security for each partner, but also develop activities through integration of the mountain areas, management of natural resources, commerce, poverty alleviation and human development.
The implementation of the project, however, leaves much to be desired; the culprit here is the yawning gap between the agreement and its delivery rates. Using the five article framework of the BRI Framework Agreement, signed on May 12, 2017, Nepal had proposed to China a rather long list of 35 projects, and on China's suggestions limited the list to a 'single digit', or nine projects. But public scrutiny and institutional vetting on the appropriateness of this project-basketin terms of Nepal's economy, sustainable development goals, financing and implementation are still waiting.
Nepal direly needs huge capital outlays for national development, especially for the Himalayan region, within a short period, but such outlays have to be of a short gestation-period, which support livelihood strategy, poverty alleviationand trans-border sharing of benefits. Nepal and China can, therefore, accord priority to the development of local areas along their border to include road networks, customs offices, common market and currency exchange facility.
Secondly, the Koshi, Karnali and Far-Western provinces are in need of transport and communication facility in their north-south corridors, which would help these provinces to link up with the Indian Railway in the south, and access Chinese HighwayG318 and G219 in the Shanghai-Lha-sa-Kashgar belt in the north! Third, the Kathmandu to Nyalum-/ Kyirong international 'friendship' highways suffer from serious capacity-underuse due to low level of trade flow, weak passenger-transit system, fragile customs services, as also poorly planned marketing. Improvement on these facilities can address Nepal's huge trade deficit with China, as wellas the zero-level trade with Central Asia and beyond.
Fourth, the hype about Kyirong (China)-Kathmandu Railway has to be correlated with the Raxaul (India)-Kathmandu Railway's schedule, beefing up trans-shipment capability, terms of financing and economic returns.
Finally, the proposal for enhancing the role of electricity in consolidating Nepal-China relations remains an issue almost ignored so far. Instead of setting up discrete projects on an ad hoc basis, they should be made an integralpart of the market model, i.e., supplier, buyer and prices. This we say because Nepal is now nearly self-sufficient in electricity, and access to the export markets of electricity in the south is in a monopsonic situation. Therefore Nepal can profitably export electricity via Tibet to mainland China, which Nepal can operationalise by harnessing transboundary rivers like the Arun, Tamakoshi, Trishuli, Budhigandaki and Karnali.
This discussion on common modern linkages for BRI in Nepal's high mountain and river systems concludes with four recommendations.
First, Nepal and China may emphasise local development through local governments (like the district/ municipality in Nepal, and prefecture/ county in Tibet) on local road networks and common markets in their contiguous trans-border areas.
Second, the strategic northsouth highway in the Chentang-Kimathanka-Khandbari corridor in Koshi Province, and the Burang-Yari-Simikot corridor in Karnali Province should be of the first-order priorities to develop the nation in a balanced way, and to complement the transregional agenda of superstates.
Third, the Kyirong-Kathmandu Railway is contingent upon several factors like the efficient use of Sino-Nepal highways and Nepal's international airports, affordability, rate of return and tripartite utility (China-Nepal-India) as a long-term agenda. Fourth, Nepal-China collaboration on hydro-electricity generation in Nepal, and export to mainland China are critical for economic growth and climate change adaptations for each partner.
But the above BRI Nepal programme also demands a modest size of finance.
Apart from the eight financing institutions China has set for financing the BRI, Nepal may also approach the World Bank and IMF. Since these projects can yield good economic internal rates of returns, we can combine grant and commercial loan from the Chinese, Indian and Western agencies. The BRI proposals on Nepal discussed are consistent not only with the superstates' transregional agenda, focused on the needs of the three nations, but also consistent with the country's SDG targets and geosecurity concerns.
A version of this article appears in the print on September 06, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
