The four-month-long unilateral ceasefire declared by the Maoist rebels came to an end as the Maoists terminated it on January 2, saying that any extension of the ceasefire would be helpful to the present establishment and suicidal for themselves. The government’s insensitiveness to the public opinion has not surprised anyone but it has reinforced the belief that the government is unwilling to settle the problem peacefully. It has also reinforced the belief that perpetuation of conflict is in the interest of the government which has also shown its unwillingness to establish rapport with the major political parties of the country. The government’s decision to ignore the political parties and the Maoists and the drama of 72 party meeting to participate in the upcoming municipal elections indicates that the government has a new definition of multiparty democracy.

The present government, they claim, is composed of several political parties as well as former leaders of major political parties like the NC, the CPN-UML and the RPP. There are leaders of half a dozen political parties who have been recognised by the Election Commission. Thus, the ministers and their supporters claim that the government was composed of political parties and so it was committed to multiparty democracy.

When it is questioned whether these political parties represented in the government had popular support compared to those political parties which had been represented in the dissolved House of Representatives, it is said that in the last six years those political parties had lost their popular support and the erosion of those political parties had benefited the parties in power.

There is no way to totally refute such arguments though there is no basis to accept it as there is no mechanism to judge the popular mood. However, the presence of the masses in the meeting organised by the parties cannot be ignored.

It is true that the public has shown their indifference towards the parties which had been represented in the dissolved House of representative for obvious reasons and looked towards the Royal initiative with certain hope for peace and resolution of the prolonged crisis. However, with the passage of time disillusionment has dawned on the people and their interest in organised political activity has increased. The people have come to realise that the political parties can rectify the mistakes of the past and new dimensions could be added in their plans and programmes. The seven- party alliance’s understanding with the Maoists has been welcomed by the general public as a move in the right direction to achieve the most-needed peace and progress in the country.

The government is soon completing its one year. Its commitment to improve security and strengthen the rule of law, arrest the deterioration of the economy, curb corruption and nepotism and respect human rights and fundamental rights remains as a commitment in the past but not in practice. The government has failed to establish credibility in the minds of the masses. Among many of its failures, the inability to solve the problem of a handful of “emancipated” Kamaiyas is a glaring example.

The security situation has improved for those in power but not for the people at large. The number of rapes, robberies and murders has increased which cannot be attributed to any political group but to rowdy elements in the society. The claim of deterioration in the number of corruption cases has been contradicted by the report of the Transparency International, which has pointed to an increase in the numbr of corruption cases. The human rights situation, according to the National Human Rights Commission as well as UN Watch, has deteriorated in the country. Freedom of the press has been curtailed and intolerance of dissent has increased.

Against such a background, the municipal elections are going to be held. In less than forty days, the citizens will be given a chance to elect their representatives to the municipalities. Until now there is no sign of enthusiasm among the public. The government has been making all the preparation for the polls; the seven-party alliance has urged the people to boycott the polls and the Maoists have stated that they too will go against the polls. Such a situation has created indecisiveness among the people. However, February 8, 2006 will definitely provide sufficient data to draw lessons from.

With the recent termination of the unilateral ceasefire by the Maoists, escalation in violence cannot be ruled out. The government’s decision to ignore the appeals by the UN, the EU and others to reciprocate the ceasefire and as a result the resurgence of violence is one of the most unwelcome acts of the government and this is bound to further isolate the government from Nepal’s well wishers. This is bound to narrow the support to the government. A long-lasting phase of conflict and agitation has started. At last the victory of sensible political elements is bound to prevail.

Upadhyay is a former foreign minister