Challenges ahead of Lankan polls
Sri Lankan politicians are on the road again as the presidential polls gather momentum with the dates of the poll likely to be announced this week. The public, the business community and the rest of civil society will follow the usual rhetoric about and from the two main candidates — PM Mahinda Rajapakse and opposition lea-der Ranil Wickremesinghe — on what they stand for.
Whether candidates from other parties will join the fray or that other parties would back the two main candidates remains to be seen though despite all the pronouncements, most analysts believe the People’s Liberation Front or JVP will ultimately support Rajapakse. Both candidates are proposing a free market policy and a negotiated settlement to the ethnic question. Rajapakse’s stance on the ethnic question will however be clearer in the days ahead after his nomination is ratified by the party and the polls date is announced. However whether this position will change if the JVP, who is vociferously opposed to the Tamil Tigers, joins the PM’s campaign is a big question mark.
Just like civil society, the private sector has also got tired of polls given its repeated frequency - in the latest case two polls in two years after the April 2004 parliamentary election. While the stock market will show up-and-down swings based on pronouncements by the candidates and other developments, it would be business as usual for the rest of the private sector which has gradually become immune to elections.
Investment however has slowed down and the land market has dipped due to the uncertainties ahead. Most businesses though have factored in elections into their forward planning and forward strategies. Most people need to be aware that the poll is most likely to be followed by a parliamentary poll, much more in the case of Ranil Wickremesinghe. In the event of a UNP win, the party would want to consolidate its strength in parliament by raising the tally of members to ensure it has a trouble-free tenure in the legislature.
There has been wide speculation in the media that President Chandrika Kumaratunga will dissolve parliament in coming weeks and call for a parliamentary poll either before or to follow the presidential election. However at a meeting on Sunday of the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party’s Central Committee, the President had rejected the rumours saying she has no intention of dissolving parliament and calling fresh elections. Parliamentary polls are due only in 2009.
So what do civil society and the public want from the poll? Nothing more than the restoration of political stability, a speedy return to normal business and a smooth transfer of power to the winner from President. The quicker the transition, the better it is. One of the biggest challenges would be in bringing down prices of essential commodities and the cost of production. Trying to restore peace talks would be another hurdle for the new leader given the ducks-and-drakes policy by Tamil Tiger guerrillas. No one knows whether the rebels are coming or going, meaning whether they are interested in peace talks or have another agenda.
Samath, a freelancer, wri-tes for THT from Colombo